2/27/12

30 Teams in 30 Days: Houston Astros

2011 Record: 56-106, 6th place NL Central
Major Acquisitions: DH Jack Cust, SP Livan Hernandez, SP Zach Duke, C Chris Snyder, SS Jed Lowrie, SP Kyle Weiland
Major Losses: RP Mark Melancon, SS Clint Barmes, LF Jason Michaels

The Astros lead off the season previews as the worst team of 2011.  Following are some fun facts about the Astros' ineptitude:


  • The Astros hit 95 HRs, good for 29th in baseball.
  • The Astros were 27th in baseball in ISO (Isolated Power), ahead of only Seattle, Minnesota, and San Diego.  
  • Of the Astros' top 5 hitters in 2011, 3 will not begin the season on the 2012 roster (Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were traded, Clint Barmes left in free agency).
  • The Astros' starting rotation allowed 1.2 HR/9, third worst in MLB behind the Orioles and Reds.  
  • As a team, the Astros were 29th in baseball, allowing a HR on 12% of fly balls hit.  
  • In the 162 starts made by Astros pitchers, they accumulated 5.7 WAR as a team.  C.J. Wilson posted a 5.9 WAR season himself in 2011.

Projected Lineup:

CF Jason Bourgeois
2B Jose Altuve
1B Carlos Lee
LF JD Martinez
SS Jed Lowrie
RF Brian Bogusevic
3B Jimmy Paredes
C Jason Castro

No one in this lineup was in the Opening Day lineup at their respective position in the 2011 season, so while the players are largely the same as the 2011 season, there has been a lot of turnover within the organization.  Jason Bourgeois could be a poor man's Michael Bourn, and for that reason, he should really win the center field job, even if he is 30 years old.  Bourgeois stole 31 bases in 37 attempts, although he was only on base 80 times total in 2011.  As you can tell, he's got speed to burn.  If he plays well, he could be a tradeable commodity by mid-season, or could show the skills to be the Astros' center fielder for a few years.  2B Jose Altuve is a diminutive slap hitter that didn't show any plate discipline last year but made contact on 96.1% of pitches he swung at in the strike zone.  He was also one of the freest swingers in baseball, swinging at 55.9% of pitches he saw, the 10th highest rate of all MLB hitters with 200 plate appearances in 2011.  If he can hit .290ish, which his minor league track record suggests is possible, he's a useful player in the #2 hole, and can play a Placido Polanco type role of moving the #1 hitter over for the middle of the lineup.

I would call the 3 through 5 hitters the heart of the lineup, except they look more like 6 through 8 hitters for an actual good team.  To his credit, Carlos Lee revived his career a bit, hitting 18 HRs and posting a .788 OPS, but his power did fall off from the 24 HRs he hit in 2010.  The problem with Lee is that he's making $17 million to be an average to below average first baseman, and the Astros can't wait to be rid of that contract.  JD Martinez is one of the Astros' few recent draft picks to hit the major leagues, and should open the season as their left fielder.  He's shown 20 HR power in the minor leagues (15 HRs over 400 PAs), and has been a .300 hitter at every level.  He could be the best Astros' hitter this season, and is one of the few players projected by Baseball America to be in the Astros' 2015 lineup.  SS Jed Lowrie has potential, but is constantly injured. He's only played 173 games over the past three years and missed 258 games due to injury according to Fangraphs.  Lowrie did hit for high OPS in the minors without much home run power, and he has the potential to hit for a .780 or .800 OPS at shortstop, which is very valuable.  However, if he doesn't make it through the season, the value of that is very limited.  Brian Bogusevic is a converted pitcher who made it to the big leagues with his bat and now has a hold on an Opening Day job.  Bogusevic has stolen 20 bases each of his past 3 seasons in AAA, and seems to be a patient hitter, but sure can't hit for much power, as his .457 SLG from his 2011 big league at bats is higher than any slugging percentage he posted in the minors.  He could end up hitting 2nd and pushing Altuve to the bottom of the lineup, which would be wise, but Altuve and Bourgeois are speedier players.  Rounding out the lineup are two youngsters, 3B Jimmy Paredes and C Jason Castro.  Jason Castro was thought to be the catcher of the future and 2011 Opening Day catcher before suffering a serious knee injury that kept him out for the entire season.  Castro may not quite be ready for MLB, but he did post high OBP numbers in the minor leagues, and that may be all he's ever useful for at the plate.  He'll compete with Chris Snyder for the starting job.  Jimmy Paredes follows the trend of this team, speedy players with little to offer in the power department.  He has 30 steal potential in a full season, but never consistently hit above .290 in the minors and averaged around a .410 SLG, so he's not a prototypical 3rd base bat.  The Astros seem to like him more than Chris Johnson though, so he'll probably start at 3rd this year.

On the bench, Jack Cust offers a decent backup option if Carlos Lee goes down, or if needed, can play outfield and horrible defense while at it.  His power is on the decline and he's really just a bat that can get on base at this point.  Utility man Matt Downs had the best hitting season of any Astro, posting an .865 OPS in 222 ABs along with 10 HRs and 1.4 WAR.  Although he showed the most impressive skills at the plate of any Astro, he remains a bench option and won't start over the younger and more limited Jose Altuve.

Starting Rotation:
SP Wandy Rodriguez
SP Bud Norris
SP Brett Myers
SP J.A. Happ
SP Jordan Lyles

Wandy Rodriguez likely isn't long for the Astros, as he was nearly traded at last year's deadline.  With his contract now being one year shorter and the Astros reportedly willing to pay half of his contract to trade him, a contender should pick up Wandy Rodriguez at the deadline.  Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles are the two farm-developed starters on the Astros, and Norris has plenty of room to grow and become a #2 caliber pitcher.  He should hit 200 innings this year, and will post around a 8.5 or 9 K/9, meaning he'll notch nearly 200 strikeouts as well.  His problem will be limiting HRs in Minute Maid Park which won't help him do so at all.  His slider was the fourth best in baseball according to Fangraphs' linear pitch weights, as it was 15 runs above average.  He only trailed Clayton Kershaw, Ervin Santana and Madison Bumgarner in that category.  Unfortunately his fastball was one of the worst in baseball as it was 15 runs below average, or in other words, equivalent to Brad Penny's fastball in pure value last year, who is now pitching in Japan.  Jordan Lyles has a solid minor league track record but struggled heavily in his promotion to the majors last year, allowing a HR about every 7 innings (1.3 HR/9).  He's posted high strikeout rates in the minors, but at 21 years old he could use more seasoning in the minors.  Livan Hernandez may be his placeholder until he proves ready.  

Brett Myers regressed back to his career tendencies in 2011, as he began allowing HRs far too often as has been the case throughout his career, but he no longer has the strikeout stuff to offset that.  He posted a 4.46 ERA, and 4.26 FIP, so nothing impressive.  Unfortunately for the Astros, he pitched insanely well in 2010, netting himself a 3 year extension that the Astros are stuck with for two more years.  Myers actually had a less effective fastball than Bud Norris at 16 runs below average, and he didn't have any outstanding pitch to offset it.  Myers hit a pretty big wall and isn't likely to be very useful going forward.  J.A. Happ had a phenomenal 2009 season, posting a 2.93 ERA, but pitching to a 4.43 FIP and showing that he was a prime candidate for regression.  The Phillies were able to trade him to the Astros anyways, and shockingly he's been a huge disappointment to the Astros, posting a 5.35 ERA in 2011.  Now he isn't  THAT bad of a pitcher, but when he walks almost 5 batters every 9 innings and allows 1.2 HRs per 9 innings, he's not going to be any more than a #4 or 5 starter.  Happ does notch a lot of strikeouts, but he has far too many other weaknesses to be a useful pitcher going forward.

Bullpen:
CL Brandon Lyon
MR Fernando Rodriguez
MR Wilton Lopez
MR Wesley Wright
MR David Carpenter
MR Lucas Harrell
MR Rhiner Cruz

The Astros' bullpen is pretty non-descript, especially after trading away their best reliever of 2011, Mark Melancon.  Wilton Lopez should be the closer, but the Astros will go with the dumb notion of a "veteran presence" at closer and likely tab Lyon as the closer although he's largely ineffective.  Lopez is a ground ball pitcher with a quick infield defense behind him and he limits his walks, so he makes the most sense at closer.  While he doesn't have a ton of pure strikeout stuff (7.10 K/9 in 2011), his groundball tendencies and low WHIP would serve him well.  Rhiner Cruz is the interesting name to watch, as the Astros took him #1 overall in the Rule 5 draft, meaning that they must keep him on their MLB roster for the full season, or return him to his former team.  Cruz will be limited to low-leverage opportunities in hopes they can keep him beyond this season and let him toil away in the minors in 2013 to improve, but he does post fairly high strikeout numbers, so he could see some early success in MLB if he's on top of his game.

Five Fearless Predictions for 2012:
1.) Bud Norris strikes out 200 batters in 200 innings, and posts a 3.0 WAR season
2.) Wilton Lopez secures the closer role by the end of May and posts a 20 save season with little trouble.
3.) Matt Downs hits 15 HRs in 350 at bats and is named an everyday starter by year's end.
4.) The Astros finish top 5 in baseball with 150 SBs, led by Jason Bourgeois and Jose Altuve's 80 combined stolen bases.
5.) The Astros deal Wandy Rodriguez for an underwhelming return of prospects in mid-July.

The Astros are a barren wasteland; devoid of talent, and with no hope in sight.  So what reason do Astros fans have to watch this season?  Well to be honest, there isn't a whole lot of reason to put stock in this season, but the Astros will use it to evaluate various youngsters and try to project which players they want with the team going forward.  Carlos Lee's $17 million comes off the books after this season, and if the Astros somehow improve to a 75-win team, we could see a free agency frenzy of signings in 2013.  Unfortunately for them, they move to the AL West in 2013, so the entire team should be expected to regress next year, and taking down the Angels or Rangers seems like an impossible task.  The Astros are probably five years from realistic contention, but this is the year they can start laying the groundwork for their future.

Projected Finish: 60-102, 6th place NL Central

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