NY Jets @ Denver - While watching this game I joked that if Tim Tebow could lead the Broncos back that I would buy his jersey for my dog. Well, if anyone has a link to a dog sized #15 Broncos jersey, preferably in blue, I would appreciate it. Sure, it wasn't pretty and watching him pass is painful at times, but he still does enough to win and that's more than any "pro-style" quarterback could do with the Broncos offense at this moment. Watching Tebow run against the Jets defense opened my eyes to something very interesting. There was one particular play where Tebow ran towards Darrelle Revis' side and instead of running out of bounds Tebow ran through Revis' arm tackle. I don't think that he was expecting Tebow to attempt running through him but after seeing that I knew that Denver was destined to win this game. On the other side of the field, the Jets got another poor game with Mark Sanchez and lost Shonn Greene to a rib injury that shouldn't sideline him this week. This loss puts the Jets in a tough situation and they must win this week against Buffalo just to keep pace with other wild card contenders in the AFC.
Oakland @ Minnesota - The biggest news items that came from this game concerned Adrian Peterson and Darrius Heyward-Bey. His high ankle sprain is likely to keep him on the sidelines for the next few weeks. Even though he has a high tolerance for pain and it's only a Grade 1 sprain there is also some ligament damage and these types of injuries almost always require several weeks. The Vikings don't have anything to play for this year anyway, so there's no need to risk the franchise. Christian Ponder had two touchdowns in garbage time but he at least looks like a NFL caliber quarterback. Heyward-Bey had a scary injury after he hit it off of E.J. Henderson's knee. Thankfully he turned out to have full use of his extremities and "just" suffered a concussion (along with neck and back injuries, thanks for the vague update, Hue Jackson). After two weeks without a catch DHB had caught four passes and seemed poised for another breakout game. Now it will be up to Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schilens, and Kevin Boss to make up for his loss. But hey, at least the Carson Palmer trade doesn't look completely terrible.
Buffalo @ Miami - Holy crap, Bills. They went from the top offense in the league to scoring eight points against the lowly Fins. I don't know what has suddenly happened to Ryan Fitzpatrick but personally I think a good starting point to righting the ship is getting the ball to Fred Jackson. Twelve total touches isn't enough for one of the best backs in the league and he is by far their biggest playmaker. I know he suffered a calf injury but they didn't seem to even do much with him while he was out there. The Bills will be in a lot of trouble if the injury sidelines him past this week (he's already been ruled out for Week 12). Give Miami all the credit in the world, though, Matt Moore has played phenomenally since taking charge and he did all of his damage without Brandon Marshall (one catch, five yards). Daniel Thomas has been a bit a disappointment (32 carries in the past two games, 2.9 yards per carry) but the Fins are still winning without him.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore - The Ravens gave Ray Rice the ball and they won the game. Way to go Cam Cameron, you realized that your best player should be featured prominently in the game plan. Joe Flacco seems to be all over the place but thankfully for Baltimore the good version showed up on Sunday. It didn't hurt that Torrey Smith overwhelmed the Bengals' secondary and could pretty much do whatever he wanted. Still, the offense flows through Rice and he had 25 touches that led to two scores. Still, this was a game that the Ravens were expected to win, even without Ray Lewis, because the Bengals were without their biggest playmaker in A.J. Green. The Bengals kept things close and Jerome Simpson had a monster game in Green's absence but Andy Dalton threw three killer interceptions. It will get interesting in the AFC North in the coming weeks as the Bengals get Green back and have match-ups with the Steelers and Ravens remaining. Unfortunately their defense has a big hole without Leon Hall and the Ravens exploited that.
Jacksonville @ Cleveland - Chris Ogbonnaya had a great game and led the Browns to a win with 115 yards on the ground and chipped in two catches. It wasn't pretty or particularly fun to watch but that's just how the Browns are this year. Greg Little is their best playmaker but as long as Colt McCoy is there he will fail to put up monster stats. Still, McCoy is not unlike Tebow in that he may not have the great stats but the Browns are far more competitive with his ability to run than they would be with a statue, drop back passer under center. Peyton Hillis seems like a distant dream and Cleveland has a chance to play spoiler the rest of the way with a matchup against the Bengals this week then the Ravens and Steelers. They also finish the season with games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh so they may actually dictate who wins the AFC North. As far as the Jags are concerned, I struggle to really write about them. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be effective but Blaine Gabbert looks lost at times and you couldn't pick their wide receivers out of a lineup. Marcedes Lewis is nice but he shouldn't be a team's #1 receiving option.
Dallas @ Washington - The Redskins should probably fire Graham Gano to the moon at this point. I don't know if I would even trust the guy to make a kick to save my life over someone off the street. The 'Skins could of thrown a roadblock in the Cowboys' playoff hopes but thanks to Gano they were unable to seize the moment. Rex Grossman played well but we've all been down this road before and I refuse to praise him when I know that in the next week or two he'll melt down again. Still, the Cowboys secondary was unable to match up against Jabar Gaffney and Donte Stallworth and that can be a problem against teams with actual elite receivers. The Cowboys, on the other hand, got another great performance from Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray kept things rolling. Dez Bryant had another spectacular play in the first quarter and disappeared until overtime where he caught a drive preserving 26-yard pass. Laurent Robinson continues to be red hot and this offense is clicking on all cylinders without their top receiver in Miles Austin.
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay - Is it bad when a team's best performance is in a loss? This is the Tampa Bay team that I visualized in the preseason and if they played like this every week they could easily flip their 4-6 record if not something better. Josh Freeman played well though the Packers' defense got two picks off of him but LeGarrette Blount looked just like the guy I thought he could be this year. He punished the Green Bay defense and it goes to show if you don't pull your best player when you fall behind in the second quarter that he can still do some damage. Kellen Winslow looked like a monster as well though he did have a few key drops but overall the Tampa offense did a fantastic job. Even their defense did a good job even though they gave up 35 points. Aaron Rodgers had an "off" game (he completed a mere 67.6% of his passes!) but he did miss Greg Jennings on three throws that would have easily gone for more than 25 yards. Jordy Nelson picked up the slack once Jennings went out, though, and the Tampa secondary just didn't have an answer. This proves that teams can score on Green Bay as long as they stay balanced but it also shows that you have to keep pace with Rodgers and the offensive unit. Few teams can do that and Tampa isn't one of them.
Carolina @ Detroit - Last week I said that Detroit would take out their frustrations on the Panthers and for the first half it looked like they were sleepwalking. When the third quarter started, though, it was like a switch was flipped on and Matt Stafford three three of his five touchdowns in the third and fourth quarters. Cam Newton threw four interceptions but he did get one touchdown through the air and another two on the ground. Kevin Smith exploded, much like Chris Johnson before him, against the Panthers defense and had three total touchdowns, including two on the ground. With him running wild it opened up lanes for Calvin Johnson who hauled in five passes and a score of his own. The Lions needed this win badly heading in a matchup against the Packers tomorrow night and even though Stafford threw two picks it's tough to argue with the results.
Arizona @ San Francisco - This game was all 49ers. From the get go they were all over the Cardinals and though Richard Bartel threw a late touchdown to Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona's offense was suffocated all day. Alex Smith continued his redemption tour and Frank Gore made his triumphant return. Michael Crabtree also emerged in a big way and maybe we are finally seeing him live up to some of that potential. The NFC West was over like a month ago but this just proves that it is a complete runaway and may be for the next few years. Arizona, St. Louis, and Seattle lack the talent to compete against San Fran and all of those teams are outclassed in the coaching department.
Seattle @ St. Louis - The Rams got an early touchdown from Brandon Lloyd and then they proceeded to pack it in. Steven Jackson was ineffective and the Seahawks ran off 24 unanswered points in what was statistically a rout. The Seahawks only managed 289 yards but the Rams somehow put together a mere 185 of their own. I feel sorry for anyone who had to watch this game all the way through but at least Marshawn Lynch had a few highlight reel runs and Sidney Rice threw a 55-yard pass to Mike Williams. That's about it though, this one was a snoozer.
San Diego @ Chicago - The Bears won the game but suffered an even bigger loss than the Chargers. Jay Cutler has been lost for the season and that means that teams will have little to fear from the Bears passing attack. I had planted myself firmly on the Bears bandwagon last week but I may have to start looking for an ejection seat as the Caleb Hanie experience takes center stage . Matt Forte can keep the offense afloat and the Bears have the best special teams squad in football but losing Cutler is massive. The defense will keep them in games but it'll be an even bigger struggle for a Chicago offense that was really hitting its stride (they had scored 30 points in four of their past five games). San Diego continued to be a tire fire and Philip Rivers threw another two interceptions bringing his season total to 17. Still, it was great to see the old Rivers-Cutler rivalry renewed even if there seems to have been a reversal of roles between the two.
Tennessee @ Atlanta - The Titans offense was spinning its tires until Jake Locker took over. Yes, a good part of that was the stout Atlanta defense that made Chris Johnson have a historically bad game on the ground. However, Matt Hasselbeck did little to improve the situation and though Locker took over in garbage time he still looked a lot better than Hasselbeck on this day. I don't think this has the makings of a quarterback controversy just yet but perhaps Locker will be another success story from this year's QB class. Even though Matt Ryan had a great game I still can't help but feel uninspired by the game. I talked to Bryan about this and he agreed that Ryan just seems to be lacking something. He's surrounded with a great cast and occasionally puts up monster games (see: earlier this year against Philadelphia) but it just doesn't seem like he will ever take a step into elite territory. It was still a good win for the Falcons after last week's heartbreaker. This team will only continue to get better as they get healthy.
Philadelphia @ NY Giants - So are we seeing the erosion of this year's Giants? The offensive line was unable to block anyone and Eli Manning never could get comfortable. Not everything is the line's fault, though, because the pick that he threw looked like it was intended for Jamar Chaney. The Giants couldn't exploit Philly's biggest weakness (rushing defense) and Brandon Jacobs had a dreadful game. I would say we should wait and see how they bounce back but the next two weeks for the Giants are brutal with matchups at New Orleans and against Green Bay. The Giants do seem to play up to their competition and losing to Philly at the Meadowlands is just something they do on an annual basis but they could very likely be at .500 in two weeks. The NFC East is out of their control at this point and they should just hope to back in as a wild card. The Eagles got exactly what they needed: a win. Vince Young may not have had great stats or looked good in the effort but he led his team to a victory and down the field for the game winning drive. DeSean Jackson played well in both the receiving and return games but again: it's DeSean Jackson against the Giants in the Meadowlands. He does this every single time and there's no reason for Eagles fans to get all giddy and demand that the team pay the man. He still runs really fast in straight lines and most good teams can design a defense to take that away.
Kansas City @ New England - Going into last year's draft there were health and speed issues with Rob Gronkowski. Aaron Hernandez had character issues and couldn't block. A year later the Patriots have designed an offense around the two of them and I would be hard-pressed to find a better receiving tandem in the league. Gronkowski looked inhuman at times on Monday night and I wish defenses the best of luck in trying to slow him down. At 6'6'', 265 he is able to just snatch the ball out of the air and smaller defensive backs can't do a thing about it. He can run through linebackers and we also saw his hurdling ability on the second touchdown. Of course it helps to have Tom Brady as the triggerman and Wes Welker on the outside. Welker was kept relatively quiet thanks to Brandon Flowers but the Chiefs were never really in this game. Tyler Palko was successful starting in place of the injured Matt Cassel and once again the Patriots defense stepped up to the challenge. Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston got their chunks of yardage but when they needed a stop the Patriots pass rush was able to hurry and force Palko into bad throws. As an aside, can you imagine how the schedule makers at ESPN felt about this game after Cassel was knocked out? Monday Night Football was already a train wreck but this one was unwatchable for anyone who didn't have a vested interest in the Patriots.
11/23/11
11/17/11
Debris Caution: Ford 400
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
The NASCAR season has come down to a single race, two drivers, and three points. Only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards can win the Sprint Cup and the only way that either one can clinch is with a victory in the Ford 400. Even though Edwards has a three point lead, he could lead the most laps, finish second, and end up in a tie with Stewart (who would get 47 points versus Carl's 44). Stewart would then win the tiebreaker because he has more victories. It's simple for both drivers and each controls their own destiny at this point regardless of what the other does.
I previewed this last week but if there is one track that Edwards wanted to see, it's Homestead. Edwards is the best on the circuit at this track and his average finish over his career is 5.7. In seven races he has six top-10 finishes, four of those have gone for top-5s, and two have been wins. When you cut that to the past five years he actually improves to an average finish of 3.5 and both of his wins have come in that span. He's heads and shoulders above everyone else and by all intents and purposes it means that Stewart's only real shot is to win.
Tony's stats are nothing to sneeze at. He has 12 career starts and an average finish of 12.4. Half of his starts have ended in the top-10 with three going for top-5s and and two of those being victories. Unfortunately for Tony none of those have come in the past five years and when you look at the time frame his stats slip. Stewart's average finish drops to 17.2 and that's with two top-10s in four starts. Just from looking at the two drivers it seems like Edwards is the heavy favorite but remember that Tony has all of the momentum in the Chase. He's won four races since September 19th and Edwards' only win came in March as Las Vegas (oddly enough, Stewart came in second at that race). As you know, though, Edwards won this very race last year and many viewed it as a springboard towards championship contention this year.
So with all of that being said who will hoist the championship on Sunday? Well it's hard to argue against either of these guys at the moment. If I consider myself a jinx then I would probably go with Edwards (sorry Carl) because I'm a bit biased towards Tony Stewart. If I had to go with the guy I expect to win this race, though, I would actually have to go with Stewart. Carl is a lock for a top-5 finish while Tony is a bit of a wild card, but it just doesn't seem like Edwards can win a race this year. It's strange, before the Chase it was the #14 who had no momentum or ability to win a race and all of a sudden he sits on the cusp of pulling what would be a major upset. It would be fitting if Tony could bookend Jimmie Johnson's championship reign and I can honestly say that I'll be rooting for him. Hopefully he and Carl can fight for the win and finish 1/2 to cap off what has been one of the most exciting seasons in NASCAR history.
What's that? I danced around an answer to who I thought would win the championship? Well obviously I think Carl Edwards will.
The NASCAR season has come down to a single race, two drivers, and three points. Only Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards can win the Sprint Cup and the only way that either one can clinch is with a victory in the Ford 400. Even though Edwards has a three point lead, he could lead the most laps, finish second, and end up in a tie with Stewart (who would get 47 points versus Carl's 44). Stewart would then win the tiebreaker because he has more victories. It's simple for both drivers and each controls their own destiny at this point regardless of what the other does.
I previewed this last week but if there is one track that Edwards wanted to see, it's Homestead. Edwards is the best on the circuit at this track and his average finish over his career is 5.7. In seven races he has six top-10 finishes, four of those have gone for top-5s, and two have been wins. When you cut that to the past five years he actually improves to an average finish of 3.5 and both of his wins have come in that span. He's heads and shoulders above everyone else and by all intents and purposes it means that Stewart's only real shot is to win.
Tony's stats are nothing to sneeze at. He has 12 career starts and an average finish of 12.4. Half of his starts have ended in the top-10 with three going for top-5s and and two of those being victories. Unfortunately for Tony none of those have come in the past five years and when you look at the time frame his stats slip. Stewart's average finish drops to 17.2 and that's with two top-10s in four starts. Just from looking at the two drivers it seems like Edwards is the heavy favorite but remember that Tony has all of the momentum in the Chase. He's won four races since September 19th and Edwards' only win came in March as Las Vegas (oddly enough, Stewart came in second at that race). As you know, though, Edwards won this very race last year and many viewed it as a springboard towards championship contention this year.
So with all of that being said who will hoist the championship on Sunday? Well it's hard to argue against either of these guys at the moment. If I consider myself a jinx then I would probably go with Edwards (sorry Carl) because I'm a bit biased towards Tony Stewart. If I had to go with the guy I expect to win this race, though, I would actually have to go with Stewart. Carl is a lock for a top-5 finish while Tony is a bit of a wild card, but it just doesn't seem like Edwards can win a race this year. It's strange, before the Chase it was the #14 who had no momentum or ability to win a race and all of a sudden he sits on the cusp of pulling what would be a major upset. It would be fitting if Tony could bookend Jimmie Johnson's championship reign and I can honestly say that I'll be rooting for him. Hopefully he and Carl can fight for the win and finish 1/2 to cap off what has been one of the most exciting seasons in NASCAR history.
What's that? I danced around an answer to who I thought would win the championship? Well obviously I think Carl Edwards will.
11/16/11
Week 10 NFL Quick Hits
Oakland @ San Diego - So the Chargers are terrible. Well, I take that back, they're not completely awful but they're an immense disappointment. Philip Rivers threw only one interception this time but the stage was stolen by Carson Palmer and Denarius Moore. Moore had two touchdowns and showed why the Raiders thought so highly out of him. He's a boom-or-bust player, though, as seen by weeks five through seven where he registered two catches for 13 yards. Still, the Raiders have a ton of fast wideouts (Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford) and it's a tough matchup for any defense to slow all of these guys down. Heyward-Bey, who I have had my fair share of laughs at, failed to register a catch for the second straight game. It's odd because he was the best receiver on the team and once Palmer took the reigns he has been a ghost. Still, this was a win the Raiders needed to have and at 5-4 they sit atop the AFC West, which I guess is a reward or something.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis - The Colts lost the game and the Jaguars still have Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Nobody wins here (until Indy drafts Andrew Luck in a few months).
New Orleans @ Atlanta - A lot of people are jumping on Mike Smith for making a call that I make on Madden nine times out of ten. Seriously though, this decision could keep the Falcons out of the playoffs and a whole lot of analysts are piling on Coach Smith for going for it on his own 30. I understand the decision, you have to believe your running back can get a single yard and that your offensive line can make the blocks necessary. Plus, he didn't want to give Drew Brees a chance to get back on the field which is also understandable. However, the Falcons defense had done well against Brees and completely shut down the Saints' running game. As long as they didn't break they could bend a little and probably get the ball back in better field position. The Falcons probably could have won this game without overtime if Julio Jones hadn't gotten hurt in the second quarter. Without Jones the Falcons offense just doesn't click so monitor his injury closely.
Houston @ Tampa Bay - The biggest news from these teams actually came in yesterday. Matt Schaub has been lost for the season with a Lisfranc injury and that means a whole lot of Matt Leinart. The Texans are still going to be a good team with Schaub, last I checked they still have Arian Foster and Ben Tate running the ball, Andre Johnson is returning this week, and the defense has made great strides under Wade Phillips. Unfortunately teams will probably start trying to cheat a little bit and load up even more against the run and it'll be up to Leinart to prove he can make the throws necessary for the Texans to make a playoff run. I don't have anything else to really say about the Bucs. Josh Freeman has regressed, LeGarrette Blount can't stay on the field because the team falls behind by 10-20 points every game, and the defense just isn't working out. They have disappointed me more than the Patriots' secondary.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - This was billed as one of the biggest games of the weekend and it lived up to that. Andy Dalton threw for only 170 yards but he did make the most of his throws to A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham. Green was forced from this game with a knee injury after his touchdown and it was glaringly obvious that the Bengals missed him. Rashard Mendenhall scored twice on the other side but this Bengals defense took a major hit when Leon Hall left the game (it would later be revealed he tore his Achilles). The Steelers offense looked a lot better with Hines Ward out and this was confirmed when the team said he was demoted from three wideout sets (Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will be the starters with Jerricho Cotchery in the slot). The Steelers are not atop the AFC North standings and without Hall the Bengals may slip back a bit, but Cincy proved they could hang tough with their divisional rival. Ben Roethlisberger broke his thumb in this game and that is something worth monitoring.
Tennessee @ Carolina - Chris Johnson did stuff! Hooray for Chris Johnson's fantasy owners! Even though it was against one of the league's worst rushing defenses it was still a step in the right direction. The Titans took away Steve Smith but having Cortland Finnegan follow him everywhere on the field and for the first time all year Cam Newton looked bad. He failed to score a touchdown for the first time in his young career and was sacked five times. Matt Hasselbeck avoided the "QBs Named Matt Curse" that plagued Cassel and Schaub and if the Texans completely go in the crapper there's a chance he could lead this team to the playoffs.
Arizona @ Philadelphia - John Skelton led the Cardinals into Philly and won. Let that sink in for a moment because it almost caused Bryan to go into a blind rage. Michael Vick suffered two broken ribs, Jeremy Maclin has a sprained AC joint, and DeSean Jackson was benched for missing a special teams meeting. Basically we're seeing a team implode right before our eyes and even though they have three Pro Bowl corners no one could stop Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz had seven catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns including the game winner on his fingertips. Beanie Wells was able to convert a lot of the short yardage downs put in front of him. Neither of these teams are going anywhere any time soon but you have to give the Cards credit for going into Philly and putting a dagger in any chance of a Philadelphia comeback this season.
Denver @ Kansas City - Tim Tebow completed two passes. One of those was a 56-yard touchdown strike to Eric Decker. Looking at the stats for this game puts it into perspective: this is the first time a team has led at a half without a completed pass since the Packers led the Bears 14-0 in 1994. Tebow said after the game that they had plenty to improve and he's absolutely right but this team is winning games which is more than can be said for most of the AFC West. Knowshon Moreno will be out for the year with a torn ACL and Willis McGahee was forced from this game as well. McGahee has a chance to play on Thursday and was medically cleared to return but Lance Ball excelled in his place. I find myself rooting for the Broncos because Tebow fascinates me and it's always amazing to see analysts try to explain just how Denver keeps winning games. As I said earlier, Matt Cassel could miss the rest of the year after an injury suffered from an Elvis Dumervil sack. I hope you're ready for the Tyler Palko experience, Chief fans.
Buffalo @ Dallas - Aw, David Nelson gave his touchdown football to his Cowboys girlfriend. That's sweet, too bad it was the only highlight for the Bills. Fred Jackson was kept out of the end zone and Ryan Fitzpatrick continued plummeting back to Earth after a red hot start. Dallas is looking like the team everyone thought they would be in the preseason after all of this time. Tony Romo isn't asked to go out and win a game, DeMarco Murray has an outside shot at rookie of the year honors, and Dez Bryant continues to make freakish plays. Laurent Robinson has stepped in and done very well for the injured Miles Austin and with the offense clicking it allows Rob Ryan's defensive schemes to shine thanks to teams having to play from behind. When Romo plays like he did on Sunday there is no team that can beat these Cowboys, we'll just have to see if he can keep it going (they play the Giants twice and the Eagles once in their final four weeks with the Buccaneers sprinkled in).
St. Louis @ Cleveland - Phil Dawson blew it. No other way to put it. The Browns got a great game from Colt McCoy and Chris Ogbonnaya (very fun name to type and say, by the way) performed admirably. Greg Little had another great game and...you know what? I can't do it. The Browns have been a part of the most boring games all year and they are a terrible team to watch. I don't understand how they went from the awesome Peyton Hillis show with Rob Ryan's defenses to being Chris Ogbonnaya and Ben Watson? I can't do it anymore, I can't keep up the charade. I would rather stab myself in the face with a fork than watch another second of the Browns. As far as the Rams go, well, Brandon Lloyd looks to be a great pickup for a team that is going nowhere and may lose him in free agency. Go them, I guess.
Washington @ Miami - Rex Grossman made his triumphant return and had a typical Rex Grossman game. The Redskins stink and I can't believe that I was fooled into thinking their defense could be one of the best in the league. Reggie Bush had two touchdowns and put a fork in the Dolphins' Andrew Luck chances. Holy crap this was another terrible game.
Baltimore @ Seattle - I'm not surprised. Seriously.
NY Giants @ San Francisco - This was a fun game to watch. The Niners lost Frank Gore and even when he was on the field he was ineffective (6 rushes, 0 yards). Alex Smith made all of the throws necessary and I jokingly told Bryan that Tom Brady could learn something here. Everything the Niners did seemed to work in the fourth quarter and Eli Manning almost brought the G-Men back. I hope these two teams meet again in the playoffs because it would be interesting to see how the teams fare with healthy backs (Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw).
Detroit @ Chicago - Yeah, I'm officially on the Bears bandwagon. I had zero faith in their season last year but after watching this dismantling of the Lions I'm a believer. Matt Forte continues to give his all in spite of the fact that he could blow out his knee at any moment and lose tens of millions of dollars. Seriously, I say this every week, but please pay this man, he has nothing left to prove. Jay Cutler only completed nine passes but he wasn't asked to do a whole lot after Chicago opened this one up. Matt Stafford attempted a whopping 63 passes, threw four interceptions, and got in a fight after the last one. It was revealed that he has a fractured index finger and Calvin Johnson is also dinged up. The Lions will take their frustrations out on Carolina this week but they have to be careful about slipping back any further in the standings. The NFC North has already been lost but the Bears, a NFC East team (whoever doesn't win between the Cowboys and Giants), and the Falcons are all nipping on their heels.
New England @ NY Jets - Where has this Patriot defense been all year? Coming off of two straight losses and staring down the possibility of losing control of the AFC East, New England rallied and destroyed the Jets on Sunday Night Football. For the entire first half it looked like the Jets were just hanging on and their defense was shutting down the Pats. From my seat it seemed inevitable that Mark Sanchez would come out and light 'em up but in fact it was the polar opposite. Tom Brady looked the best he has in a month and Rob Gronkowski stupefied the Jets secondary. Darrelle Revis looked great against Wes Welker but it left things wide open for Gronk. Rob Ninkovich looked phenomenal with two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown that pretty much sealed the game. Everything clicked for the Pats and with their upcoming schedule they may roll into the playoffs on a winning streak. There were rumors floating around that LaDainian Tomlinson had blown out his knee but it turned out just to be a sprained MCL. He probably won't play tomorrow night against the Broncos and that's a major loss for one of the Jets' best receiving threats.
Minnesota @ Green Bay - It sure is great to be a Rodgers. Aaron steamrolled the Vikings and I can't say anything else about the guy. He's having the greatest season by a quarterback ever and may end up erasing some of the greatest ever from the single season record books. He makes things look so easy that I am in awe watching this offense play. I don't know how anyone can beat them. Rodgers and this offense put teams in a hole and if you try to keep up with scoring then this defense will blitz Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson on every play. Oh, and Tramon Williams keeps picking off passes and the secondary as a whole ballhawks. I don't think they'll go undefeated but I have a tough time visualizing anyone beating them in the playoffs, especially with teams having to go up to Green Bay. The only hope a team has is that Randall Cobb continues fumbling kickoffs and giving teams a short field. As far as the Vikings go this is a season that got out of control really quickly and we're seeing just how far behind the rest of their division that they are. Adrian Peterson isn't getting any younger and this is a team that may not contend again while he's there because it is going to take a lot of rebuilding to get them anywhere close to NFC Championship Game again. Oh, and Antoine Winfield broke his clavicle and will be lost for the year. When it rains it pours I suppose.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis - The Colts lost the game and the Jaguars still have Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Nobody wins here (until Indy drafts Andrew Luck in a few months).
New Orleans @ Atlanta - A lot of people are jumping on Mike Smith for making a call that I make on Madden nine times out of ten. Seriously though, this decision could keep the Falcons out of the playoffs and a whole lot of analysts are piling on Coach Smith for going for it on his own 30. I understand the decision, you have to believe your running back can get a single yard and that your offensive line can make the blocks necessary. Plus, he didn't want to give Drew Brees a chance to get back on the field which is also understandable. However, the Falcons defense had done well against Brees and completely shut down the Saints' running game. As long as they didn't break they could bend a little and probably get the ball back in better field position. The Falcons probably could have won this game without overtime if Julio Jones hadn't gotten hurt in the second quarter. Without Jones the Falcons offense just doesn't click so monitor his injury closely.
Houston @ Tampa Bay - The biggest news from these teams actually came in yesterday. Matt Schaub has been lost for the season with a Lisfranc injury and that means a whole lot of Matt Leinart. The Texans are still going to be a good team with Schaub, last I checked they still have Arian Foster and Ben Tate running the ball, Andre Johnson is returning this week, and the defense has made great strides under Wade Phillips. Unfortunately teams will probably start trying to cheat a little bit and load up even more against the run and it'll be up to Leinart to prove he can make the throws necessary for the Texans to make a playoff run. I don't have anything else to really say about the Bucs. Josh Freeman has regressed, LeGarrette Blount can't stay on the field because the team falls behind by 10-20 points every game, and the defense just isn't working out. They have disappointed me more than the Patriots' secondary.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - This was billed as one of the biggest games of the weekend and it lived up to that. Andy Dalton threw for only 170 yards but he did make the most of his throws to A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham. Green was forced from this game with a knee injury after his touchdown and it was glaringly obvious that the Bengals missed him. Rashard Mendenhall scored twice on the other side but this Bengals defense took a major hit when Leon Hall left the game (it would later be revealed he tore his Achilles). The Steelers offense looked a lot better with Hines Ward out and this was confirmed when the team said he was demoted from three wideout sets (Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will be the starters with Jerricho Cotchery in the slot). The Steelers are not atop the AFC North standings and without Hall the Bengals may slip back a bit, but Cincy proved they could hang tough with their divisional rival. Ben Roethlisberger broke his thumb in this game and that is something worth monitoring.
Tennessee @ Carolina - Chris Johnson did stuff! Hooray for Chris Johnson's fantasy owners! Even though it was against one of the league's worst rushing defenses it was still a step in the right direction. The Titans took away Steve Smith but having Cortland Finnegan follow him everywhere on the field and for the first time all year Cam Newton looked bad. He failed to score a touchdown for the first time in his young career and was sacked five times. Matt Hasselbeck avoided the "QBs Named Matt Curse" that plagued Cassel and Schaub and if the Texans completely go in the crapper there's a chance he could lead this team to the playoffs.
Arizona @ Philadelphia - John Skelton led the Cardinals into Philly and won. Let that sink in for a moment because it almost caused Bryan to go into a blind rage. Michael Vick suffered two broken ribs, Jeremy Maclin has a sprained AC joint, and DeSean Jackson was benched for missing a special teams meeting. Basically we're seeing a team implode right before our eyes and even though they have three Pro Bowl corners no one could stop Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz had seven catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns including the game winner on his fingertips. Beanie Wells was able to convert a lot of the short yardage downs put in front of him. Neither of these teams are going anywhere any time soon but you have to give the Cards credit for going into Philly and putting a dagger in any chance of a Philadelphia comeback this season.
Denver @ Kansas City - Tim Tebow completed two passes. One of those was a 56-yard touchdown strike to Eric Decker. Looking at the stats for this game puts it into perspective: this is the first time a team has led at a half without a completed pass since the Packers led the Bears 14-0 in 1994. Tebow said after the game that they had plenty to improve and he's absolutely right but this team is winning games which is more than can be said for most of the AFC West. Knowshon Moreno will be out for the year with a torn ACL and Willis McGahee was forced from this game as well. McGahee has a chance to play on Thursday and was medically cleared to return but Lance Ball excelled in his place. I find myself rooting for the Broncos because Tebow fascinates me and it's always amazing to see analysts try to explain just how Denver keeps winning games. As I said earlier, Matt Cassel could miss the rest of the year after an injury suffered from an Elvis Dumervil sack. I hope you're ready for the Tyler Palko experience, Chief fans.
Buffalo @ Dallas - Aw, David Nelson gave his touchdown football to his Cowboys girlfriend. That's sweet, too bad it was the only highlight for the Bills. Fred Jackson was kept out of the end zone and Ryan Fitzpatrick continued plummeting back to Earth after a red hot start. Dallas is looking like the team everyone thought they would be in the preseason after all of this time. Tony Romo isn't asked to go out and win a game, DeMarco Murray has an outside shot at rookie of the year honors, and Dez Bryant continues to make freakish plays. Laurent Robinson has stepped in and done very well for the injured Miles Austin and with the offense clicking it allows Rob Ryan's defensive schemes to shine thanks to teams having to play from behind. When Romo plays like he did on Sunday there is no team that can beat these Cowboys, we'll just have to see if he can keep it going (they play the Giants twice and the Eagles once in their final four weeks with the Buccaneers sprinkled in).
St. Louis @ Cleveland - Phil Dawson blew it. No other way to put it. The Browns got a great game from Colt McCoy and Chris Ogbonnaya (very fun name to type and say, by the way) performed admirably. Greg Little had another great game and...you know what? I can't do it. The Browns have been a part of the most boring games all year and they are a terrible team to watch. I don't understand how they went from the awesome Peyton Hillis show with Rob Ryan's defenses to being Chris Ogbonnaya and Ben Watson? I can't do it anymore, I can't keep up the charade. I would rather stab myself in the face with a fork than watch another second of the Browns. As far as the Rams go, well, Brandon Lloyd looks to be a great pickup for a team that is going nowhere and may lose him in free agency. Go them, I guess.
Washington @ Miami - Rex Grossman made his triumphant return and had a typical Rex Grossman game. The Redskins stink and I can't believe that I was fooled into thinking their defense could be one of the best in the league. Reggie Bush had two touchdowns and put a fork in the Dolphins' Andrew Luck chances. Holy crap this was another terrible game.
Baltimore @ Seattle - I'm not surprised. Seriously.
NY Giants @ San Francisco - This was a fun game to watch. The Niners lost Frank Gore and even when he was on the field he was ineffective (6 rushes, 0 yards). Alex Smith made all of the throws necessary and I jokingly told Bryan that Tom Brady could learn something here. Everything the Niners did seemed to work in the fourth quarter and Eli Manning almost brought the G-Men back. I hope these two teams meet again in the playoffs because it would be interesting to see how the teams fare with healthy backs (Gore and Ahmad Bradshaw).
Detroit @ Chicago - Yeah, I'm officially on the Bears bandwagon. I had zero faith in their season last year but after watching this dismantling of the Lions I'm a believer. Matt Forte continues to give his all in spite of the fact that he could blow out his knee at any moment and lose tens of millions of dollars. Seriously, I say this every week, but please pay this man, he has nothing left to prove. Jay Cutler only completed nine passes but he wasn't asked to do a whole lot after Chicago opened this one up. Matt Stafford attempted a whopping 63 passes, threw four interceptions, and got in a fight after the last one. It was revealed that he has a fractured index finger and Calvin Johnson is also dinged up. The Lions will take their frustrations out on Carolina this week but they have to be careful about slipping back any further in the standings. The NFC North has already been lost but the Bears, a NFC East team (whoever doesn't win between the Cowboys and Giants), and the Falcons are all nipping on their heels.
New England @ NY Jets - Where has this Patriot defense been all year? Coming off of two straight losses and staring down the possibility of losing control of the AFC East, New England rallied and destroyed the Jets on Sunday Night Football. For the entire first half it looked like the Jets were just hanging on and their defense was shutting down the Pats. From my seat it seemed inevitable that Mark Sanchez would come out and light 'em up but in fact it was the polar opposite. Tom Brady looked the best he has in a month and Rob Gronkowski stupefied the Jets secondary. Darrelle Revis looked great against Wes Welker but it left things wide open for Gronk. Rob Ninkovich looked phenomenal with two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown that pretty much sealed the game. Everything clicked for the Pats and with their upcoming schedule they may roll into the playoffs on a winning streak. There were rumors floating around that LaDainian Tomlinson had blown out his knee but it turned out just to be a sprained MCL. He probably won't play tomorrow night against the Broncos and that's a major loss for one of the Jets' best receiving threats.
Minnesota @ Green Bay - It sure is great to be a Rodgers. Aaron steamrolled the Vikings and I can't say anything else about the guy. He's having the greatest season by a quarterback ever and may end up erasing some of the greatest ever from the single season record books. He makes things look so easy that I am in awe watching this offense play. I don't know how anyone can beat them. Rodgers and this offense put teams in a hole and if you try to keep up with scoring then this defense will blitz Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson on every play. Oh, and Tramon Williams keeps picking off passes and the secondary as a whole ballhawks. I don't think they'll go undefeated but I have a tough time visualizing anyone beating them in the playoffs, especially with teams having to go up to Green Bay. The only hope a team has is that Randall Cobb continues fumbling kickoffs and giving teams a short field. As far as the Vikings go this is a season that got out of control really quickly and we're seeing just how far behind the rest of their division that they are. Adrian Peterson isn't getting any younger and this is a team that may not contend again while he's there because it is going to take a lot of rebuilding to get them anywhere close to NFC Championship Game again. Oh, and Antoine Winfield broke his clavicle and will be lost for the year. When it rains it pours I suppose.
11/9/11
Debris Caution: Kobalt Tools 500
Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.
Wow, you miss one week in the NASCAR season due to a power outage and you're more laps down than Joe Nemechek. By now you know all about the Kyle Busch controversy that surrounds he and Ron Hornaday. I'll also be blunt, seeing as I live in Pennsylvania it's impossibly tough to focus on NASCAR at the moment. I'll spare you the details but I will say that the firestorm that you may picture going on with Penn State (from fans to detractors, alums to those on the outside looking in) is dwarfed by the real thing. I won't go further into it because there's hundreds, if not thousands, of places for you to go to get information and opinions. Just bear with me if this post seems a bit scatterbrained, this blog is something that Bryan and I do in our spare time and at the moment it's nearly impossible for me to focus.
With the Sprint Cup series heading to Phoenix and Homestead for the final two races you would think that things shift heavily towards Carl Edwards' favor. He won both of these races last year and even though Tony Stewart won last week's race he wasn't able to make much of a dent in the points lead. It's crazy to think that Stewart has won four races in the Chase and still sits behind Edwards but that's a testament to how strong the #99 has been. At this point one of these two men will be the Sprint Cup champion so I'm going to dedicate this post just solely to the two of them. Let's take a look at their Phoenix International Raceway resumes and see who has the advantage.
Stewart has more experience at the track than Edwards (19 career starts vs. 14) but both are equal in other stats (Smoke has a slight upper hand with 10 top-10s to Edwards' 9, seven top-5s to five, Edwards has the only DNF between them and each have a win). Stewart has an average finish of 11.7 to Edwards' 13.0 but keep in mind that Stewart won at Phoenix in 1999, his rookie year. Stewart is easily the best driver on the circuit at the moment and with the momentum he has he's the heavy favorite to pull out a win this week. I think both drivers are poised for top-5 caliber days but I think Stewart absolutely needs to win this week to keep the pressure on Edwards or even pass him in the standings. Carl is the best driver on the planet at Homestead and his stats there (sneak peak for next week: 5.7 average finish) are eye-popping. Tony needs to get a bit of a nest egg before then and that means doing everything he can to win this race.
That's not to say that Smoke won't be driving the wheels off the #14 anyway but his recent success shrinks the already minuscule gap between he and Edwards. In the past five years Stewart has an average finish of 12.9 and Edwards sits at 13.7. Last year Tony failed to have a top-10 in either Phoenix race and as I mentioned, Edwards won this event. Not everything is bad for Smoke fans, though, Carl started on the pole at Phoenix earlier this year but finished 28th. Tony went on to post a 7th place finish and if that happens once again we could very well see a scenario where Smoke just has come in the top-15 or so to win a championship. Of course, it's highly unlikely that Edwards fudges up once again and he likely realizes that he controls his own destiny at this point. It should be a fun showdown between two of NASCAR's best and it's fun to finally have a tight points battle once again. Sure, last year was kind of close until the end but nothing close to this. Kudos to the new points system, NASCAR, though I still don't care for the Chase.
Wow, you miss one week in the NASCAR season due to a power outage and you're more laps down than Joe Nemechek. By now you know all about the Kyle Busch controversy that surrounds he and Ron Hornaday. I'll also be blunt, seeing as I live in Pennsylvania it's impossibly tough to focus on NASCAR at the moment. I'll spare you the details but I will say that the firestorm that you may picture going on with Penn State (from fans to detractors, alums to those on the outside looking in) is dwarfed by the real thing. I won't go further into it because there's hundreds, if not thousands, of places for you to go to get information and opinions. Just bear with me if this post seems a bit scatterbrained, this blog is something that Bryan and I do in our spare time and at the moment it's nearly impossible for me to focus.
With the Sprint Cup series heading to Phoenix and Homestead for the final two races you would think that things shift heavily towards Carl Edwards' favor. He won both of these races last year and even though Tony Stewart won last week's race he wasn't able to make much of a dent in the points lead. It's crazy to think that Stewart has won four races in the Chase and still sits behind Edwards but that's a testament to how strong the #99 has been. At this point one of these two men will be the Sprint Cup champion so I'm going to dedicate this post just solely to the two of them. Let's take a look at their Phoenix International Raceway resumes and see who has the advantage.
Stewart has more experience at the track than Edwards (19 career starts vs. 14) but both are equal in other stats (Smoke has a slight upper hand with 10 top-10s to Edwards' 9, seven top-5s to five, Edwards has the only DNF between them and each have a win). Stewart has an average finish of 11.7 to Edwards' 13.0 but keep in mind that Stewart won at Phoenix in 1999, his rookie year. Stewart is easily the best driver on the circuit at the moment and with the momentum he has he's the heavy favorite to pull out a win this week. I think both drivers are poised for top-5 caliber days but I think Stewart absolutely needs to win this week to keep the pressure on Edwards or even pass him in the standings. Carl is the best driver on the planet at Homestead and his stats there (sneak peak for next week: 5.7 average finish) are eye-popping. Tony needs to get a bit of a nest egg before then and that means doing everything he can to win this race.
That's not to say that Smoke won't be driving the wheels off the #14 anyway but his recent success shrinks the already minuscule gap between he and Edwards. In the past five years Stewart has an average finish of 12.9 and Edwards sits at 13.7. Last year Tony failed to have a top-10 in either Phoenix race and as I mentioned, Edwards won this event. Not everything is bad for Smoke fans, though, Carl started on the pole at Phoenix earlier this year but finished 28th. Tony went on to post a 7th place finish and if that happens once again we could very well see a scenario where Smoke just has come in the top-15 or so to win a championship. Of course, it's highly unlikely that Edwards fudges up once again and he likely realizes that he controls his own destiny at this point. It should be a fun showdown between two of NASCAR's best and it's fun to finally have a tight points battle once again. Sure, last year was kind of close until the end but nothing close to this. Kudos to the new points system, NASCAR, though I still don't care for the Chase.
11/8/11
What I Know: NFL Halfway Point
I apologize for not having a Quick Hits or NASCAR post up last week. Due to an unforeseen snowstorm here in Pennsylvania I was without any Internet (and power in small bunches) for most of last week. This week, however, I'm back and better than ever. In lieu of my weekly post on the NFL I figured it was better to call attention to things here at the halfway point. There's a lot to talk about so I'll go ahead and dive in instead of sitting here and introducing stuff.
The Eagles are terrible. Bryan's favorite team dropped another game after they led in the fourth quarter and now they sit at 3-5 on the year. Before the season they were the Super Bowl favorite and after so many signings it seemed like they would finally bring the Lombardi Trophy to Philadelphia. Instead, what we have right now is an absolute mess. The feared secondary has leaks everywhere, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie being unable to fit in as a nickel corner, Asante Samuel getting dinged up and burned for big plays, and Nnamdi Asomugha failing to live up to expectations. Nnamdi hasn't been bad by any stretch, but I know from living here near Philadelphia that the fan base has already turned on the guy and it's really kind of unfortunate. Michael Vick has leaped backwards and has turned back into the guy we saw in Atlanta instead of the fantasy juggernaut we all knew last year. Jeremy Maclin is the team's go-to receiver but he seems to always be the guy that doesn't match the catch, first down, or yardage necessary late in games. DeSean Jackson has become a decoy that runs really fast in a straight line down the field and if you can stop that you can completely neutralize him. I haven't even talked about the rushing defense which is dangerously close to New England Patriots' secondary levels of terrible. Just about the only thing that has gone right for the Eagles has been LeSean McCoy's emergence as arguably the league's best running back. They're in a whole lot of trouble and they're in danger of not even making the playoffs right now.
Speaking of the Patriots, they absolutely stink. Losing to the Giants is nothing to be ashamed of but it's the matter in which the loss occurred. I won't bother repeating what I'm sure you've read here or heard elsewhere, but the secondary is literally the single worst defensive unit I have ever seen. Devin McCourty isn't a shutdown corner (shocker) and Sergio Brown isn't a starting caliber player (another surprise). The Pats' problems were masked early on this year by the fact that Tom Brady could go out and score 30-40 points a game and throw for 400 yards. Unfortunately, as we learned from the Peyton Manning-led Colts teams, being unable to stop anyone or generate turnovers and relying solely on outscoring an opponent isn't a recipe for success. Tom Brady will probably finish with a career high in interceptions this year (he's up to 10 already, career high of 14) but it's not all his fault. Cris Carter said this morning that Deion Branch can just completely disappear at times and I tend to agree with him. Branch gets one-on-one match-ups and loses every single time. Wes Welker has picked up the slack of the entire receiving corps but right now the rest of them are just awful. Chad Ochocinco isn't working out and I don't know anyone who takes until Week 10 to learn a playbook and just looking at the rest of the depth chart boils my blood. Thankfully the team has Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, both of which are Pro Bowl caliber players at the position, but unfortunately Hernandez has been slowed down thanks to a knee injury. I don't even know what the Pats can do to fix things right now but I'm not looking forward to the Sunday Night matchup against the Jets.
I also know that the Packers are really, really, really good. Yes, the defense can give up quite a bit of yardage and the Chargers put up a ton of points on them, but they still get tons of turnovers. Relying on the other team to make mistakes is never a substitute for a good defense but the Packers are just fine right now. Please, Packers fans, do not complain about your team's defense at the moment. Please. I know it may be something that comes back to bite you down the road but trust me: no one wants to hear it. I would literally go up to New England, rent a bus, and drive the Patriots' entire defensive group to Green Bay for you if we could swap.
Does anyone know what to make of the AFC West right now? Philip Rivers seemed to be the one guy immune to Norv Turner's suckitude but even he has succumbed to the venom. Rivers has a 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, which leads the entire NFL. The Chiefs started the year in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes with injuries to Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry, then they went on a winning streak, and this weekend they were smoked by the Dolphins. The Raiders put all of their hopes and dreams on Carson Palmer but without Darren McFadden they're going nowhere. Then in Denver they have Tim Tebow at quarterback, a guy that they don't even really want but have to play because of Kyle Orton's poor play and the guy's popularity. I picked the Chargers at the beginning of the year and I still think they're the most talented team but Rivers has to get his act together. At this point I would love to see Tebow run wild and make the playoffs just to see how awkward John Fox and John Elway would be. It doesn't hurt that they're the most exciting team in the division by a long shot.
The Indianapolis Colts and their fans should be embarrassed of the team's play to this point. Yes, barring something crazy like say, winning a game, you have Andrew Luck waiting at the other end of this season. Yes, Peyton Manning is crucial to the team's success but you can't tell me that a single player is the difference between 10-6 and 0-9 (so far). Right now the talk in the media is what the Colts will do with the first pick and honestly, I'm split about it. Yes, you have to draft Andrew Luck, but he is also ready to play right now. He's had all of the polish and there's no need to sit him on the bench for a few years behind Manning. However, by doing that you're also forced to trade or cut Peyton and the fan backlash from that would be a spectacle. There's also the chance that they pass on Luck and draft someone else, hoping to get another 3-4 years from Peyton, but that's the dumbest option I've seen so far. They could also trade the #1 overall for a package of picks and then draft someone like Matt Barkley or Landry Jones and I think this will be what we see them do. Whatever the Colts decide it's going to have detractors but at least their secondary is still better than New England's.
The Bengals are legit and it pains me to say it. I live with someone who wears a Bengals Snuggie (don't ask) and I have no idea how this team is doing it. The defense is stout and one of the best in the league, right up there with their divisional foes. A.J. Green has come in and been just as impressive as Cam Newton in Carolina and Andy Dalton is not the worst quarterback to ever exist. On top of it they traded Carson Palmer for a king's ransom to the Raiders so their future is even brighter than the present. I love watching the Bengals play because of how athletic their defense is and seeing Dalton fling it to Green and Jerome Simpson is a sight to behold. I was wrong, Cincy fans, please forgive me and I accept my new orange and black overlords.
The Redskins aren't a good football team. I was fooled early on but even then I was still quite skeptical. Who knew that NFL teams would catch on to the fact that they blitz Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan every play? When those two guys are neutralized we have a team that can't really do anything else. John Beck is all sorts of awful (Rex Grossman is worse), their WR corps is ravished, and their running back is from Hawaii. I would say it's time to blow it up but there's isn't a whole lot to really blow up.
I wish that I followed my gut earlier this season. You can ask Bryan, before the season began I said that this is the type of the year that the New York Giants would win the the NFC East. No one was talking about them with the Dream Team nonsense in Philly and because Dallas was finally healthy. Granted I said it in jest, but the Giants are a scary team to face. Before the year began they were the team of malcontents with Osi Umenyiora and Brandon Jacobs but now you won't hear a peep from either of those guys. Eli Manning has transferred his interceptions to Philip Rivers and they may have the best group of receivers in the league even when Mario Manningham's comedic hijinks. Jake Ballard has replaced and maybe even improved the TE position and once they get Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw healthy they may be able to avoid a second half collapse. Maybe not, we'll see.
I sat down and I watched Chris Johnson this week. Being his fantasy owner since he first broke into the league I have been a huge CJ2K guy and always supported him. Even here on this blog I kept saying "he'll get it going" and threw out words of encouragement. After seeing him, though, it's obvious what his problem is. It isn't blocking, it isn't the lack of offensive weapons to take the pressure off of him, and it isn't the fact that he's gotten paid. CJ just doesn't have that top end speed we all grew accustomed to seeing from him. He can still get outside and make guys miss at times but that breakaway speed right now and who knows if he will get it back. He still has great hands and is a weapon out of the backfield but he isn't a threat to break an 80-yard touchdown at any point anymore. There's whispers that the Titans may cut him in March to save some cash but I doubt we'll see that, even if CJ stays on this pace.
San Francisco and Houston are the two teams I am most interested in seeing in the playoffs. The reason is simple: both have excellent running games and top notch defenses. Wade Phillips has made a world's worth of difference for the Texans and Jim Harbaugh has completely turned around San Fran. Frank Gore is looking as good as ever and the 49ers will have to do something this year because this may be the last elite year they get out of the 28-year old back with a lot of wear and tear. The Texans have a two-headed monster with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and teams can't stack the box for fear of Andre Johnson on the outside. Buffalo is another team in this mold with Fred Jackson and an above average defense, but I just don't know if they have the juice to do any damage this year. The defense just isn't good enough to win them a game right now but they absolutely have to take advantage of Jackson's year. We all know how volatile RBs can be, I mean look at Peyton Hillis and Cleveland right now.
What I Don't Know
What was I smoking when I picked the Bucs to go to the Super Bowl before the year? I mean, I believed that Josh Freeman would take a leap forward but then I listened to Trey Wingo on ESPN and it further convinced me until I went crazy. I'm not going to blame Trey, though, I was looking for someone to give me a push. I was a strong believer in LeGarrette Blount and I still think he's a great back but he is stifled in Tampa. Yes, he may not be the greatest pass catcher but without Earnest Graham you have to keep him on the field on third downs. He made two catches on Sunday but if the Bucs continue to take him out for Kregg flippin' Lumpkin there's no way that teams will take them seriously. The defense hasn't gelled and Ronde Barber seems to get beat on a weekly basis. Nothing is going to save them at this point because they won't catch the Saints and the Falcons are clicking on all cylinders right now with a healthy Julio Jones. They may even get passed by Cam Newton and the Panthers before the end of the season and I'm a dummy for picking them to do anything.
2012 MLB Free Agency Top 50: 11-20
11. Hiroki Kuroda
2009-2011 averages: 28 games started, 11-12, 3.35 ERA, 172 IP, 1.177 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Kuroda was one of the biggest names at the trade deadline in 2011, but like Aramis Ramirez, he decided he didn't want to leave his comfort zone. Kuroda could have swung a divisional race for a team in need of pitching, but instead remained with the Dodgers and finished off the best season of his career. His 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and career-high 161 strikeouts helped him to a fantastic contract year. The groundballer (48.6% groundball rate for his career) worked well in Chavez Ravine and his profile translates well to other parks as well. There were a couple concerning developments with his season however, including his 3.78 FIP (the highest in his career) and the unexplainable decrease in slider usage (thrown 21% in 2011 vs 31% in 2010). The change in his groundball rate coincides largely with his FIP, as his HR/9 skyrocketed this season to 1.07 HR/9, largely because he threw his sinker less and four-seam fastball more. His fastball is a good swing-and-miss pitch (21% swing-and-miss percentage), but the four-seam fastball is the easiest pitch to take yard, so Kuroda still needs to find a balance. He ditched his slider, which has historically been his second best pitch, and started throwing a curveball more, which was very effective. Most of Kuroda's repertoire was within the 84-92 MPH range, so adding a curveball in the mid-70's was smart, to help keep hitters off balance.
Overall, Kuroda may not be one of the best groundballers in the league due to his new approach, but he still isn't a flyball pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and has the potential to be a #2 pitcher in many rotations. The question is, what team will commit multiple years to the 37-year-old? The Tigers and Red Sox were willing to trade for the right-hander last year, and I think plenty of teams, AL and NL alike, would be interested in enlisting his services for the next 2-3 years. However, Kuroda loves Los Angeles and has said he doesn't want to move unless it's back to Japan. It seems like Dodgers or bust here, and the Dodgers would be foolish not to re-sign the remarkably consistent veteran for one final contract.
Prediction: Dodgers; 2 years, $26 million
12. Mark Buehrle
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 13-11, 3.91 ERA, 210 IP, 1.316 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Buehrle is one of the more consistent pitchers across baseball over his career, and while the way he does it isn't flashy, it's effective. His 4.5 K/9 is extremely slow, but the fast pace he works with on the mound and his above-average groundball rate make him a productive and quite useful pitcher. In 2011 he posted a 3.59 ERA, his lowest since 2005, and a near-normal FIP of 3.98 (3.90 FIP in 2010, 3.94 FIP in 2008), showing he consistently gets better results from his performance than the average pitcher with his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) would. While his ERA usually hovers in the mid-3's to low 4's, it can't be overlooked how many innings he pitches each year. He's totaled over 200 innings in every full season of his career as a starter (11 consecutive from 2001-2011). As such a soft tosser (average fastball speed of 85 MPH), it seems that he doesn't toil too hard on the mound. This obviously isn't scientifically proven, but it seems that soft tossers like Jamie Moyer and Buehrle who use their changeup as an out pitch can pitch for decades, not just a few years. While it would seem that his slow pitches would be easier to focus in on, Buehrle has impeccable control and works so quickly on the mound that hitters remain off balance.
Buehrle is one of the prime pieces of this free agent market, and probably the most dependable commodity in the market, which should take him far. The White Sox would obviously like him back, but if it's to be believed they're trimming payroll, it's tough to see them re-signing him. Many teams could be interested, including the Marlins, Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox and others. I think the Marlins will be the biggest player for Buehrle along with Chicago, Buehrle has ties to Ozzie Guillen obviously in Florida and reportedly the manager is fighting for the front office to sign him. The Marlins may not want to pay CJ Wilson, so Buehrle seems to be the safer, more affordable option and I believe they'll get him.
Prediction: Marlins; 3 years, $40 million
13. David Ortiz
2009-2011 averages: 147 games, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 82 R, .272/.366/.515, 130 OPS+
Ortiz has enjoyed a revival of his career over the past two seasons, as his .881 OPS from 2009-2011 is dragged down by the .238/.332/.462 slash line he posted in 2009. Ortiz was phenomenal in 2011, hitting for a .953 ops and hitting over .300 for the first time since 2007 when he finished 4th in MVP voting. Big Papi was very impressive with the bat, reducing his K% to 13.7%, the lowest rate of his career and almost a 10% decrease from 2010. His walk rate isn't as high as it once was, but the walk rate hovering around 13% over the past two seasons is still quite impressive and shows that pitchers still fear the big DH. Another interesting part of Big Papi's season is that he hit for less power, but was more effective overall than in the past couple years. He hit 21% line drives (highest since 2005), and only hit 37.5% flyballs (the lowest figure of his career). The BABIP on line drives is more than 3 times as high as any other form of batted balls. The BABIP ranges from about .710 to .740 on line drives, depending on the season, so the higher the line drive rate, the more successful season a hitter will have. He hit .716 on line drives, .339 on fly balls, and .208 on ground balls. Ortiz's consistently high line drive rate means he still has the making of an elite middle-of-the-order hitter. This year, Big Papi even figured out his struggles against lefties, as he hit .329 against lefties and .298 against righties. Again, that seems to be a result of his line drive rate, as it was 23.6% against lefties this year. Studies show that players who lead in line drive rate one year rarely do the next, so I'd expect a drop back to about a 18% line drive rate (league average), but he can still easily post a season very similar to his 09-11 averages.
Ortiz's market suffers because he HAS to be a DH. Playing him at first base, even for a couple interleague games a year, is an adventure to say the least. The major suitors for Big Papi will be the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and possibly the Angels and Orioles. Because of his long history with the team, and because I think the Blue Jays will sign Prince Fielder (who will probably play plenty at DH), I expect Ortiz to return to the Red Sox on a 2 year deal with a vesting option for a 3rd year.
Prediction: Red Sox; 2 years, $24 million, 3rd year option for $12 million
14. Michael Cuddyer
2009-2011 averages: 150 games, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 85 R, .276/.341/.465, 117 OPS+
Cuddyer is one of the most versatile free agents available this offseason, and as a result has been one of the hottest names thus far in free agency rumors, with the Phillies, Twins, and Rockies already expressing interest in him. His OPS would likely be higher if he didn't play in a pitcher's park like Target Field, but he still posted an .805 OPS last season. Should he go to a more neutral or hitter-friendly park, he has 25 HR potential. Over the past two years, Cuddyer has spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B and RF. He reminds me a lot of a Ty Wigginton in his prime. He'll start 130-140 games a year, but probably no more than 100 at any one position. Cuddyer's versatility is a very valuable asset to a manager, as he can have no qualms sitting an infielder and playing Cuddyer at the position. Cuddyer becomes a more valuable player and helps keep the other starters rested as well. He's obviously more valuable at 2nd or 3rd base, despite the fact that his defense is probably below average at those positions. Cuddyer is a dead-red fastball hitter as we can see by looking at his pitch values. He was only an above-average hitter on fastballs (60% of the pitches he saw), and against splitters (he saw about 20 splitters all last year).
Cuddyer is in line for a 3 year deal as a utility infielder with a permanent starting role, and will likely move to the NL. Small-ball AL managers like Ron Gardenhire of the Twins, Mike Scioscia of the Angels, and Jim Leyland of the Tigers will also be interested in Cuddyer. Cuddyer's market will suffer because he's a type A free agent and likely to receive an arbitration offer from the Twins. Any team that signs him as a result will have to surrender their first round pick or an early 2nd round pick, and a division rival like the Tigers surely wouldn't be pleased with the sandwich pick the Twins also will receive upon Cuddyer's signing elsewhere. I think the Rockies and Phillies will dominate the market for him, with the Phillies ultimately winning out because they offer a better chance at making the World Series, something Cuddyer has come close to many times but never experienced.
Prediction: Phillies; 3 years, $30 million
15. Grady Sizemore
2009-2011 averages: 70 games, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 41 R, .234/.314/.413, 98 OPS+
Sizemore is probably the biggest risk of this free agency class, and as such, don't expect him to get more than a 2 year deal, but he's one of the most talented players available simultaneously. Formerly thought of as the best center fielder in baseball, Sizemore's never been able to stay healthy, and his stock has plummeted from perennial All-Star to questionable starter. Sizemore clearly doesn't have the health to remain in CF, and doesn't have the health to remain a threat on the basepaths (no stolen bases in 2 attempts over a 71 game sample last year). Ever since getting hurt, Sizemore's never been able to consistently post the numbers he once did as a perennial 30 HR, 30 SB threat from 2005-2008.
I can't think that Sizemore is realistically expected by any front office to play more than 100 games, but if he's moved to left field and can DH as well, he has a shot to play over 100 games and be a solid contributor. I think Chicago would be a solid spot for him to rehab his image on a one-year deal, similarly to the one-year deal Carlos Pena signed in 2011.
Prediction: Cubs; 1 year, $7 million
16. Ryan Madson
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.78 ERA, 64 IP, 1.152 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Madson finally got his first extended chance to close for the Phillies last year and flourished in the role, posting a career-low 2.37 ERA and 2.25 FIP, along with converting 32 of 34 save opportunities. Madson finally delivered on his promise, and was quite impressive. His changeup at 14.7 runs above average was the best of any reliever in baseball this year. The changeup is effective as it generates a lot of groundballs, and Madson threw it more than ever this year, posting a solid ground ball rate (48.3% ground balls). Madson largely ditched his cutter in another wise move, as he more than halved the frequency at which he threw it (18.1% in 2010, 8.4% in 2011). His cutter has always been his least effective pitch, so while it's useful as a pitch to keep batters off balance once in a while, it should be nothing more. Madson is also a very controlled pitcher, as in 2010 he posted a 1.04 WHIP and this past year pitched to a 1.15 WHIP. He doesn't complicate matters for himself, and that's the mark of a successful closer.
He'll have a large market, but I'm pretty sure the Phillies will realize they don't want to lose him. They've talked with Jonathan Papelbon, but he's so expensive that Madson seems the better option, especially given his ability to generate more ground balls.
Prediction: Phillies; 4 years, $36 million
Actual (11/8/2011): Phillies; 4 years, $44 million with 5th year option for $13 million
17. Edwin Jackson
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 12-10, 3.96 ERA, 208 IP, 1.363 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Do you really know what you're getting from Edwin Jackson on a year-to-year basis? The simple, cursory answer to that riddle would be no, but over the past 3 years, Jackson seems to have become a little more predictable. He actually had a solid contract year, posting a 3.79 ERA over his time with the White Sox and Cardinals. Jackson K/BB rate was the best of his career (2.39 K/BB), and his 3.55 FIP was easily the lowest of his career (his 2010 season was his second lowest). The decline in FIP shows that he's improving a bit and his expectations should be higher than his 3.96 ERA over the past 3 years. He also was one out from posting his 3rd straight 200-inning season. Jackson's control was always his problem, as there was no question that his 95+ MPH fastball and solid slider were a great combination if he could harness them. He's throwing strikes more often than ever before, and his swing-and-miss percentage has hovered around 10% the past 3 years, a great rate for a starting pitcher.
Jackson was an absolute stud in Chicago actually, and while his ERA remained similar in St. Louis, his pitching approach fell off. Jackson totaled 5.1 WAR in his 30 starts with Chicago, and a 3.1 WAR in his 19 starts with Chicago in 2011. Upon getting to St. Louis, the results remained largely the same, but the way he got there was far more concerning. His fastball was 7.6 runs below the average fastball during his time in St. Louis, and given that he started 11 games, he surrendered almost an extra run per game by throwing his fastball too much and ditching his slider. His slider was more effective in St. Louis on a per-game basis, but his fastball was so poor, that it's clear the change in approach didn't help. Watching Jackson's tape from Chicago could teach his future team a lot about him.
The bright side for Jackson is that he had his best season to date while allowing a .330 BABIP and 25% Line Drive rate. While that seems contradictory, those rates are far above his career averages, and should regress back to more normal rates in 2012. The likely expectation for Edwin Jackson is that he posts a WAR between in the 3.6-3.8 range just like he has from 2009-2011, and that his ERA stays in the mid to high 3's. He's a useful middle of the rotation starter, and one that I think the Cubs would love to grab at this price. Jackson should end up being worth this contract over time,
Prediction: Cubs; 4 years, $40 million
18. Carlos Pena
2009-2011 averages: 144 games, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 76 R, .216/.346/.468, 120 OPS+
Carlos Pena revived his stock a little bit by taking a one-year deal in Chicago, and returned to an average above .200. However, he made it painfully obvious this season that he's a pure platoon player now. Pena posted a .225/.357/.462 slash line, the OBP being impressive as usual considering his low batting average, but against lefties, his performance was unacceptable. In 146 plate appearances, Carlos posted a pathetic .133/.260/.333 line, making him AAA fodder against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handers, Pena was an elite hitter, to the tune of .255/.388/.504, and hit 21 of his 28 home runs in 2011. Pena can be a fantastic hitter in a platoon role, where he'll still play 100+ games, and is a good fielder to boot, so his market in the NL may be stronger.
Pena would be a perfect fit for the Milwaukee Brewers to fill in for Prince Fielder after his departure on a one-year deal. If the Cubs want him, they have the inside track it seems, after his comments about being excited upon Theo Epstein's arrival in Chicago. I don't see him getting the $10 million that he got last year, mostly because Pujols, Fielder, and Cuddyer are the highly sought after first basemen, which depresses his stock to a mid-tier free agent.
Prediction: Brewers; 1 year, $8 million
19. Heath Bell
2009-2011 averages: 66 games, 2.36 ERA, 67 IP, 1.157 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Bell was the most popular closer at the MLB Trade Deadline, but is he really worth the 3 year commitment he's looking for and $10 million per year? Bell's K/9 plummeted from 11.06 in 2010 to a more average 7.32 K/9 in 2011, and his FIP rose from 2.05 in 2010 to 3.23 in 2011. What was the reason for such a precipitous drop in 2011? It appears to be Bell's pitch selection. In 2011, Bell remained a fastball and curveball pitcher primarily, but he also threw a newly added sinker 15% of the time. Sinkers are well known as pitches that are thrown to contact in order to induce groundballs, so Bell's sinker largely functioned with that purpose. Bell generated less swing-and-misses with his fastball and also did the same with his curveball, so his struggles can't all be attributed to adding a sinker. Regardless though, the fact that he's old, isn't as dominant of a strikeout closer, and is leaving the most spacious park in baseball (Petco Park) will surely concern prospective suitors for Bell's services. Bell should still remain effective, but likely has seen his better days pass him by.
Bell has publicly stated he wants to remain in San Diego, and would accept a discount for them (he quoted 3 years, $27-30 million in July or August). He's also expressed interest in playing for the Angels or Dodgers, so it's clear he wants to remain on the West Coast. The only problem there is that Bell isn't going to command a $10 million salary elsewhere in all likelihood, so he's better off taking arbitration in hopes that the 2013 free agency class has less closers. Not to mention, he's a type-A free agent, so teams will be very hesitant to offer him a contract since they'd have to surrender their first round pick to do so.
Prediction: Padres; Bell accepts arbitration offer.
20. Josh Willingham
2009-2011 averages: 128 games, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R, .257/.360/.479, 125 OPS+
Josh Willingham has always seemed to be one of the most underappreciated players in MLB to me, as his high OBP and above-average SLG% could help many teams, but instead he was left to take a one-year deal in Oakland, where his stock plummeted. He still had a fine season by posting an .810 OPS (.246/.332/.477), but the .246 average was the lowest of his career. He struck out more than ever before 26% strikeouts), and walked less than he had since his first full season (9.9% walks). Josh also swung at 21% of pitches outside the strike zone (more than ever before), and made contact on 75.7% of his swings, the lowest rate of his career. It honestly just looks like Willingham either regressed, or that he became more of a swing-for-the-fences player. I'm siding with the latter, because last year he also set his career highs in HRs (29) and RBIs (98). He knew he had to carry the load for the anemic Oakland offense, and apparently tried a little too hard to do so.
He's going to go under the radar again, and would be a great mid-level option for a team in need of a 6th hitter. He can DH, play first, and play corner outfield, so he's somewhat versatile at least. Willingham would be a perfect fit for a contender in need of a corner outfielder, and the Indians seem to be a good fit. They passed on trading for Willingham last year, but his availablility this year should intrigue them, as a Willingham-Brantley-Choo outfield would end their worries about the outfield for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Indians; 3 years, $20 million
2009-2011 averages: 28 games started, 11-12, 3.35 ERA, 172 IP, 1.177 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Kuroda was one of the biggest names at the trade deadline in 2011, but like Aramis Ramirez, he decided he didn't want to leave his comfort zone. Kuroda could have swung a divisional race for a team in need of pitching, but instead remained with the Dodgers and finished off the best season of his career. His 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and career-high 161 strikeouts helped him to a fantastic contract year. The groundballer (48.6% groundball rate for his career) worked well in Chavez Ravine and his profile translates well to other parks as well. There were a couple concerning developments with his season however, including his 3.78 FIP (the highest in his career) and the unexplainable decrease in slider usage (thrown 21% in 2011 vs 31% in 2010). The change in his groundball rate coincides largely with his FIP, as his HR/9 skyrocketed this season to 1.07 HR/9, largely because he threw his sinker less and four-seam fastball more. His fastball is a good swing-and-miss pitch (21% swing-and-miss percentage), but the four-seam fastball is the easiest pitch to take yard, so Kuroda still needs to find a balance. He ditched his slider, which has historically been his second best pitch, and started throwing a curveball more, which was very effective. Most of Kuroda's repertoire was within the 84-92 MPH range, so adding a curveball in the mid-70's was smart, to help keep hitters off balance.
Overall, Kuroda may not be one of the best groundballers in the league due to his new approach, but he still isn't a flyball pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and has the potential to be a #2 pitcher in many rotations. The question is, what team will commit multiple years to the 37-year-old? The Tigers and Red Sox were willing to trade for the right-hander last year, and I think plenty of teams, AL and NL alike, would be interested in enlisting his services for the next 2-3 years. However, Kuroda loves Los Angeles and has said he doesn't want to move unless it's back to Japan. It seems like Dodgers or bust here, and the Dodgers would be foolish not to re-sign the remarkably consistent veteran for one final contract.
Prediction: Dodgers; 2 years, $26 million
12. Mark Buehrle
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 13-11, 3.91 ERA, 210 IP, 1.316 WHIP, 4.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Buehrle is one of the more consistent pitchers across baseball over his career, and while the way he does it isn't flashy, it's effective. His 4.5 K/9 is extremely slow, but the fast pace he works with on the mound and his above-average groundball rate make him a productive and quite useful pitcher. In 2011 he posted a 3.59 ERA, his lowest since 2005, and a near-normal FIP of 3.98 (3.90 FIP in 2010, 3.94 FIP in 2008), showing he consistently gets better results from his performance than the average pitcher with his peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9) would. While his ERA usually hovers in the mid-3's to low 4's, it can't be overlooked how many innings he pitches each year. He's totaled over 200 innings in every full season of his career as a starter (11 consecutive from 2001-2011). As such a soft tosser (average fastball speed of 85 MPH), it seems that he doesn't toil too hard on the mound. This obviously isn't scientifically proven, but it seems that soft tossers like Jamie Moyer and Buehrle who use their changeup as an out pitch can pitch for decades, not just a few years. While it would seem that his slow pitches would be easier to focus in on, Buehrle has impeccable control and works so quickly on the mound that hitters remain off balance.
Buehrle is one of the prime pieces of this free agent market, and probably the most dependable commodity in the market, which should take him far. The White Sox would obviously like him back, but if it's to be believed they're trimming payroll, it's tough to see them re-signing him. Many teams could be interested, including the Marlins, Nationals, Yankees, Red Sox and others. I think the Marlins will be the biggest player for Buehrle along with Chicago, Buehrle has ties to Ozzie Guillen obviously in Florida and reportedly the manager is fighting for the front office to sign him. The Marlins may not want to pay CJ Wilson, so Buehrle seems to be the safer, more affordable option and I believe they'll get him.
Prediction: Marlins; 3 years, $40 million
13. David Ortiz
2009-2011 averages: 147 games, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 82 R, .272/.366/.515, 130 OPS+
Ortiz has enjoyed a revival of his career over the past two seasons, as his .881 OPS from 2009-2011 is dragged down by the .238/.332/.462 slash line he posted in 2009. Ortiz was phenomenal in 2011, hitting for a .953 ops and hitting over .300 for the first time since 2007 when he finished 4th in MVP voting. Big Papi was very impressive with the bat, reducing his K% to 13.7%, the lowest rate of his career and almost a 10% decrease from 2010. His walk rate isn't as high as it once was, but the walk rate hovering around 13% over the past two seasons is still quite impressive and shows that pitchers still fear the big DH. Another interesting part of Big Papi's season is that he hit for less power, but was more effective overall than in the past couple years. He hit 21% line drives (highest since 2005), and only hit 37.5% flyballs (the lowest figure of his career). The BABIP on line drives is more than 3 times as high as any other form of batted balls. The BABIP ranges from about .710 to .740 on line drives, depending on the season, so the higher the line drive rate, the more successful season a hitter will have. He hit .716 on line drives, .339 on fly balls, and .208 on ground balls. Ortiz's consistently high line drive rate means he still has the making of an elite middle-of-the-order hitter. This year, Big Papi even figured out his struggles against lefties, as he hit .329 against lefties and .298 against righties. Again, that seems to be a result of his line drive rate, as it was 23.6% against lefties this year. Studies show that players who lead in line drive rate one year rarely do the next, so I'd expect a drop back to about a 18% line drive rate (league average), but he can still easily post a season very similar to his 09-11 averages.
Ortiz's market suffers because he HAS to be a DH. Playing him at first base, even for a couple interleague games a year, is an adventure to say the least. The major suitors for Big Papi will be the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and possibly the Angels and Orioles. Because of his long history with the team, and because I think the Blue Jays will sign Prince Fielder (who will probably play plenty at DH), I expect Ortiz to return to the Red Sox on a 2 year deal with a vesting option for a 3rd year.
Prediction: Red Sox; 2 years, $24 million, 3rd year option for $12 million
14. Michael Cuddyer
2009-2011 averages: 150 games, 22 HR, 82 RBI, 85 R, .276/.341/.465, 117 OPS+
Cuddyer is one of the most versatile free agents available this offseason, and as a result has been one of the hottest names thus far in free agency rumors, with the Phillies, Twins, and Rockies already expressing interest in him. His OPS would likely be higher if he didn't play in a pitcher's park like Target Field, but he still posted an .805 OPS last season. Should he go to a more neutral or hitter-friendly park, he has 25 HR potential. Over the past two years, Cuddyer has spent time at 1B, 2B, 3B and RF. He reminds me a lot of a Ty Wigginton in his prime. He'll start 130-140 games a year, but probably no more than 100 at any one position. Cuddyer's versatility is a very valuable asset to a manager, as he can have no qualms sitting an infielder and playing Cuddyer at the position. Cuddyer becomes a more valuable player and helps keep the other starters rested as well. He's obviously more valuable at 2nd or 3rd base, despite the fact that his defense is probably below average at those positions. Cuddyer is a dead-red fastball hitter as we can see by looking at his pitch values. He was only an above-average hitter on fastballs (60% of the pitches he saw), and against splitters (he saw about 20 splitters all last year).
Cuddyer is in line for a 3 year deal as a utility infielder with a permanent starting role, and will likely move to the NL. Small-ball AL managers like Ron Gardenhire of the Twins, Mike Scioscia of the Angels, and Jim Leyland of the Tigers will also be interested in Cuddyer. Cuddyer's market will suffer because he's a type A free agent and likely to receive an arbitration offer from the Twins. Any team that signs him as a result will have to surrender their first round pick or an early 2nd round pick, and a division rival like the Tigers surely wouldn't be pleased with the sandwich pick the Twins also will receive upon Cuddyer's signing elsewhere. I think the Rockies and Phillies will dominate the market for him, with the Phillies ultimately winning out because they offer a better chance at making the World Series, something Cuddyer has come close to many times but never experienced.
Prediction: Phillies; 3 years, $30 million
15. Grady Sizemore
2009-2011 averages: 70 games, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 41 R, .234/.314/.413, 98 OPS+
Sizemore is probably the biggest risk of this free agency class, and as such, don't expect him to get more than a 2 year deal, but he's one of the most talented players available simultaneously. Formerly thought of as the best center fielder in baseball, Sizemore's never been able to stay healthy, and his stock has plummeted from perennial All-Star to questionable starter. Sizemore clearly doesn't have the health to remain in CF, and doesn't have the health to remain a threat on the basepaths (no stolen bases in 2 attempts over a 71 game sample last year). Ever since getting hurt, Sizemore's never been able to consistently post the numbers he once did as a perennial 30 HR, 30 SB threat from 2005-2008.
I can't think that Sizemore is realistically expected by any front office to play more than 100 games, but if he's moved to left field and can DH as well, he has a shot to play over 100 games and be a solid contributor. I think Chicago would be a solid spot for him to rehab his image on a one-year deal, similarly to the one-year deal Carlos Pena signed in 2011.
Prediction: Cubs; 1 year, $7 million
16. Ryan Madson
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.78 ERA, 64 IP, 1.152 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9
Madson finally got his first extended chance to close for the Phillies last year and flourished in the role, posting a career-low 2.37 ERA and 2.25 FIP, along with converting 32 of 34 save opportunities. Madson finally delivered on his promise, and was quite impressive. His changeup at 14.7 runs above average was the best of any reliever in baseball this year. The changeup is effective as it generates a lot of groundballs, and Madson threw it more than ever this year, posting a solid ground ball rate (48.3% ground balls). Madson largely ditched his cutter in another wise move, as he more than halved the frequency at which he threw it (18.1% in 2010, 8.4% in 2011). His cutter has always been his least effective pitch, so while it's useful as a pitch to keep batters off balance once in a while, it should be nothing more. Madson is also a very controlled pitcher, as in 2010 he posted a 1.04 WHIP and this past year pitched to a 1.15 WHIP. He doesn't complicate matters for himself, and that's the mark of a successful closer.
He'll have a large market, but I'm pretty sure the Phillies will realize they don't want to lose him. They've talked with Jonathan Papelbon, but he's so expensive that Madson seems the better option, especially given his ability to generate more ground balls.
Prediction: Phillies; 4 years, $36 million
Actual (11/8/2011): Phillies; 4 years, $44 million with 5th year option for $13 million
17. Edwin Jackson
2009-2011 averages: 32 games started, 12-10, 3.96 ERA, 208 IP, 1.363 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
Do you really know what you're getting from Edwin Jackson on a year-to-year basis? The simple, cursory answer to that riddle would be no, but over the past 3 years, Jackson seems to have become a little more predictable. He actually had a solid contract year, posting a 3.79 ERA over his time with the White Sox and Cardinals. Jackson K/BB rate was the best of his career (2.39 K/BB), and his 3.55 FIP was easily the lowest of his career (his 2010 season was his second lowest). The decline in FIP shows that he's improving a bit and his expectations should be higher than his 3.96 ERA over the past 3 years. He also was one out from posting his 3rd straight 200-inning season. Jackson's control was always his problem, as there was no question that his 95+ MPH fastball and solid slider were a great combination if he could harness them. He's throwing strikes more often than ever before, and his swing-and-miss percentage has hovered around 10% the past 3 years, a great rate for a starting pitcher.
Jackson was an absolute stud in Chicago actually, and while his ERA remained similar in St. Louis, his pitching approach fell off. Jackson totaled 5.1 WAR in his 30 starts with Chicago, and a 3.1 WAR in his 19 starts with Chicago in 2011. Upon getting to St. Louis, the results remained largely the same, but the way he got there was far more concerning. His fastball was 7.6 runs below the average fastball during his time in St. Louis, and given that he started 11 games, he surrendered almost an extra run per game by throwing his fastball too much and ditching his slider. His slider was more effective in St. Louis on a per-game basis, but his fastball was so poor, that it's clear the change in approach didn't help. Watching Jackson's tape from Chicago could teach his future team a lot about him.
The bright side for Jackson is that he had his best season to date while allowing a .330 BABIP and 25% Line Drive rate. While that seems contradictory, those rates are far above his career averages, and should regress back to more normal rates in 2012. The likely expectation for Edwin Jackson is that he posts a WAR between in the 3.6-3.8 range just like he has from 2009-2011, and that his ERA stays in the mid to high 3's. He's a useful middle of the rotation starter, and one that I think the Cubs would love to grab at this price. Jackson should end up being worth this contract over time,
Prediction: Cubs; 4 years, $40 million
18. Carlos Pena
2009-2011 averages: 144 games, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 76 R, .216/.346/.468, 120 OPS+
Carlos Pena revived his stock a little bit by taking a one-year deal in Chicago, and returned to an average above .200. However, he made it painfully obvious this season that he's a pure platoon player now. Pena posted a .225/.357/.462 slash line, the OBP being impressive as usual considering his low batting average, but against lefties, his performance was unacceptable. In 146 plate appearances, Carlos posted a pathetic .133/.260/.333 line, making him AAA fodder against left-handed pitchers. Against right-handers, Pena was an elite hitter, to the tune of .255/.388/.504, and hit 21 of his 28 home runs in 2011. Pena can be a fantastic hitter in a platoon role, where he'll still play 100+ games, and is a good fielder to boot, so his market in the NL may be stronger.
Pena would be a perfect fit for the Milwaukee Brewers to fill in for Prince Fielder after his departure on a one-year deal. If the Cubs want him, they have the inside track it seems, after his comments about being excited upon Theo Epstein's arrival in Chicago. I don't see him getting the $10 million that he got last year, mostly because Pujols, Fielder, and Cuddyer are the highly sought after first basemen, which depresses his stock to a mid-tier free agent.
Prediction: Brewers; 1 year, $8 million
19. Heath Bell
2009-2011 averages: 66 games, 2.36 ERA, 67 IP, 1.157 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Bell was the most popular closer at the MLB Trade Deadline, but is he really worth the 3 year commitment he's looking for and $10 million per year? Bell's K/9 plummeted from 11.06 in 2010 to a more average 7.32 K/9 in 2011, and his FIP rose from 2.05 in 2010 to 3.23 in 2011. What was the reason for such a precipitous drop in 2011? It appears to be Bell's pitch selection. In 2011, Bell remained a fastball and curveball pitcher primarily, but he also threw a newly added sinker 15% of the time. Sinkers are well known as pitches that are thrown to contact in order to induce groundballs, so Bell's sinker largely functioned with that purpose. Bell generated less swing-and-misses with his fastball and also did the same with his curveball, so his struggles can't all be attributed to adding a sinker. Regardless though, the fact that he's old, isn't as dominant of a strikeout closer, and is leaving the most spacious park in baseball (Petco Park) will surely concern prospective suitors for Bell's services. Bell should still remain effective, but likely has seen his better days pass him by.
Bell has publicly stated he wants to remain in San Diego, and would accept a discount for them (he quoted 3 years, $27-30 million in July or August). He's also expressed interest in playing for the Angels or Dodgers, so it's clear he wants to remain on the West Coast. The only problem there is that Bell isn't going to command a $10 million salary elsewhere in all likelihood, so he's better off taking arbitration in hopes that the 2013 free agency class has less closers. Not to mention, he's a type-A free agent, so teams will be very hesitant to offer him a contract since they'd have to surrender their first round pick to do so.
Prediction: Padres; Bell accepts arbitration offer.
20. Josh Willingham
2009-2011 averages: 128 games, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 64 R, .257/.360/.479, 125 OPS+
Josh Willingham has always seemed to be one of the most underappreciated players in MLB to me, as his high OBP and above-average SLG% could help many teams, but instead he was left to take a one-year deal in Oakland, where his stock plummeted. He still had a fine season by posting an .810 OPS (.246/.332/.477), but the .246 average was the lowest of his career. He struck out more than ever before 26% strikeouts), and walked less than he had since his first full season (9.9% walks). Josh also swung at 21% of pitches outside the strike zone (more than ever before), and made contact on 75.7% of his swings, the lowest rate of his career. It honestly just looks like Willingham either regressed, or that he became more of a swing-for-the-fences player. I'm siding with the latter, because last year he also set his career highs in HRs (29) and RBIs (98). He knew he had to carry the load for the anemic Oakland offense, and apparently tried a little too hard to do so.
He's going to go under the radar again, and would be a great mid-level option for a team in need of a 6th hitter. He can DH, play first, and play corner outfield, so he's somewhat versatile at least. Willingham would be a perfect fit for a contender in need of a corner outfielder, and the Indians seem to be a good fit. They passed on trading for Willingham last year, but his availablility this year should intrigue them, as a Willingham-Brantley-Choo outfield would end their worries about the outfield for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Indians; 3 years, $20 million
11/4/11
2012 MLB Free Agency Preview Top 50: 1-10
1. Albert Pujols:
2009-2011 averages: 155 games played, 42 HR, 117 RBI, 115 R, .313/.409/.598, 171 OPS+
I think we all know who this guy is by now. The predominant player of his generation, Albert Pujols is already a Hall of Famer, and still probably has 7-8 productive years left in him as a big leaguer (if not more). The facet of Pujols' game I've always been the most impressed with is his uncanny consistency from season to season. Had Albert gotten one more hit this season, he would have hit .300 for the 11th straight season. He has 30 HRs in every season, and fell 3 RBI short of an 11th straight 100 RBI season as well. So essentially, Albert Pujols is a lock for a .300+ average, 35 to 40 HRs and 100 RBI every season, which is remarkable. That's the reason he'll get paid.
Taking a deeper look at Pujols, it's really tough to find flaws, and one could say that we saw the beginning of the end of Pujols this year back in April. He hit .245/.305/.453 in the month and panic set in on every media network, while his .758 OPS in April and .752 OPS in May were unimpressive. The final four months of the year, he posted an OPS over .950 each month and hit 28 total HRs. This is Pujols' worst season ever, and he still posted a .906 OPS and 5.1 WAR season. There are concerning changes though, especially his walk rate plummeting from 14% to 9.4%, the lowest of his career. However, it's highly unlikely that this was anything but an aberration. Looking at Pujols' peripherals, his BABIP was very low, and the reason for such an occurrence seems fairly simple. Pujols hit far more ground balls than ever before (44% of batted balls were ground balls), and swung at pitches outside the zone more frequently than in any season (31.5%). Pujols seemed to be forcing his swing a bit, and his outside swings have actually increased more and more over the past four seasons. Coinciding with his increased swinging, Pujols' walk rate dropped each of the past two years, so I don't expect his walk rate to return to the astronomical 16.4% it was in 2009. His stats have definitely declined almost across the board the past three years, so that's something to watch, and the biggest concern with Pujols. As a 32-year-old player entering next season, does a team really want to commit to Pujols through his age-40 season? Unfortunately, that's the price the winning team will have to pay.
Pujols can be counted on for 150+ games, a .300/.400/.550 slash line, 30+ HRs and 100 RBI in the heart of a decent lineup for years to come, and that's invaluable. I wish GMs luck trying to put a price on it. He will get at least 7 years, if not a longer deal, and I fully expect one team to offer him $28 million a year, which would make him the top paid player in the history of MLB. Theo Epstein has stated publicly he won't go after Pujols or Fielder, but I don't buy it. More than half of the teams in baseball could show interest in Pujols, so his market is obviously the one to watch. I expect Pujols to get upwards of $200 million total easily, but I don't think he'll push the 10 year, $300 million deal that I expected prior to the year. Whatever team signs him will end up regretting it in about 4-5 years, just like the Yankees did with their extension on A-Rod's contract.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals; 9 years, $225 million
2009-2011 averages: 155 games played, 42 HR, 117 RBI, 115 R, .313/.409/.598, 171 OPS+
I think we all know who this guy is by now. The predominant player of his generation, Albert Pujols is already a Hall of Famer, and still probably has 7-8 productive years left in him as a big leaguer (if not more). The facet of Pujols' game I've always been the most impressed with is his uncanny consistency from season to season. Had Albert gotten one more hit this season, he would have hit .300 for the 11th straight season. He has 30 HRs in every season, and fell 3 RBI short of an 11th straight 100 RBI season as well. So essentially, Albert Pujols is a lock for a .300+ average, 35 to 40 HRs and 100 RBI every season, which is remarkable. That's the reason he'll get paid.
Taking a deeper look at Pujols, it's really tough to find flaws, and one could say that we saw the beginning of the end of Pujols this year back in April. He hit .245/.305/.453 in the month and panic set in on every media network, while his .758 OPS in April and .752 OPS in May were unimpressive. The final four months of the year, he posted an OPS over .950 each month and hit 28 total HRs. This is Pujols' worst season ever, and he still posted a .906 OPS and 5.1 WAR season. There are concerning changes though, especially his walk rate plummeting from 14% to 9.4%, the lowest of his career. However, it's highly unlikely that this was anything but an aberration. Looking at Pujols' peripherals, his BABIP was very low, and the reason for such an occurrence seems fairly simple. Pujols hit far more ground balls than ever before (44% of batted balls were ground balls), and swung at pitches outside the zone more frequently than in any season (31.5%). Pujols seemed to be forcing his swing a bit, and his outside swings have actually increased more and more over the past four seasons. Coinciding with his increased swinging, Pujols' walk rate dropped each of the past two years, so I don't expect his walk rate to return to the astronomical 16.4% it was in 2009. His stats have definitely declined almost across the board the past three years, so that's something to watch, and the biggest concern with Pujols. As a 32-year-old player entering next season, does a team really want to commit to Pujols through his age-40 season? Unfortunately, that's the price the winning team will have to pay.
Pujols can be counted on for 150+ games, a .300/.400/.550 slash line, 30+ HRs and 100 RBI in the heart of a decent lineup for years to come, and that's invaluable. I wish GMs luck trying to put a price on it. He will get at least 7 years, if not a longer deal, and I fully expect one team to offer him $28 million a year, which would make him the top paid player in the history of MLB. Theo Epstein has stated publicly he won't go after Pujols or Fielder, but I don't buy it. More than half of the teams in baseball could show interest in Pujols, so his market is obviously the one to watch. I expect Pujols to get upwards of $200 million total easily, but I don't think he'll push the 10 year, $300 million deal that I expected prior to the year. Whatever team signs him will end up regretting it in about 4-5 years, just like the Yankees did with their extension on A-Rod's contract.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals; 9 years, $225 million
2. Prince Fielder:
2009-2011 averages: 162 games played, 39 HR, 115 RBI, 97 R, .287/.409/.547, 155 OPS+
Prince is the second high-profile hitter available this offseason, and a fantastic middle of the order hitter to add to any lineup. Fielder posted the second best season of his career by pretty much any metric. His .299/.415/.566 line was only topped by his 2009 season. He had a 5.5 WAR season this year, and played almost every game again. Baseball analysts and executives alike have expressed concern about how Prince's 5'11" and 275 pound frame will hold up over the next 7 years, but Fielder has never missed more than 6 games in his career which sets those doubts aside. Separating the aspects that make up Wins Above Replacement (Batting, Fielding, Positional, Replacement, Base Running), Fielder was actually 5th in MLB in batting, making him the fifth most valuable hitter. That's pretty impressive especially considering that his WAR would be higher except that he plays at a traditional power hitting position (1st base is the easiest position to play, so WAR docks players accordingly).
For a guy named Fielder though, he sure doesn't acknowledge that part of the game. He was the fifth worst fielding first basemen in baseball (granted, the four worse fielders were far lower in grading). For this reason, it's likely he'll attract a heavy market in the AL, where teams can play him both at first base and slot him occasionally (or mainly) at DH.
Overall, I think Fielder is the second best free agent available, but the most interesting facet of this free agent group is the fact that its two premier players are at the same position. It'll be interesting to watch if he or Pujols sets the market for first basemen. I have a feeling Fielder will sign after Pujols, and likely for a deal approaching (if not surpassing) Mark Texieira's 8 year, $180 million deal ($22.5 million per year). If anyone in this offseason gets a deal longer than 7 years, it really should be Prince, as he's only 27. Most players hit their prime in their early 30s, so Prince would hypothetically only be beginning his decline towards the end of his deal.
Prediction: Blue Jays; 8 years, $185 million
3. Jose Reyes
2010-2011 averages: 130 games played, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 92 R, 34 SB, .309/.352/.460, 122 OPS+
Jose Reyes and C.C. Sabathia's free agent futures have been the central storylines of the New York baseball media this season. Well, C.C. signed an extension that'll guarantee him an extra $30 million, and C.C. only had to add one year to his deal ($25 million salary in 2016, and $5 million buyout in 2017 or $25 million salary in 2017). Reyes looks like he'll be the only one darting from the New York market, and his possibilities are limitless. Given that he's not a middle of the order hitter, he won't approach the Pujols and Fielder contracts. However, he is at an important defensive position, and offers a different type of threat to prospective buyers. His blazing speed gives pitching batteries fits trying to hold him down, and he's a feisty hitter at the plate, hitting .300 annually, as well as usually doing it at leadoff, putting his offense in a good position. Reyes' case for a big contract in 2011 actually seems to be about on par with Carl Crawford's argument in 2010. Reyes obviously has the injury history following him around, but he strikes out less than Carl Crawford and is a switch-hitter without a major split. He also plays a far more important defensive position (his fielding is average, but an average shortstop is still worth far more than a great left fielder) and doesn't complain about where he hits in the lineup. Crawford's public demand that he not be slotted at leadoff and that he hit third was ridiculous, and because of it, Crawford was the $142 million #7 hitter most of this year. Reyes at least will hit where he's set in the line-up and for that reason seems to be a better team player.
Reyes is the main reason I included the averages over multiple seasons. His 2011 season was above what can be reasonably expected from him (he hit .337/.384/.493 vs. his .292/.341/.441 career line, sound like Carl Crawford much?) and he's injury prone as demonstrated by his 130 game per season averagea. He's good for two DL stints a year in all likelihood (only one if he's lucky), and I had to omit 2009 from the average as he only played 36 games that year.
Reyes is set to be this free agent class' Carl Crawford. He won't get Crawford money, but he's going to get very, very close. I fully expect him to top $100 million and to push a Vernon Wells-caliber deal (7 years, $126 million). Unfortunately, in about four years, I'd expect Reyes' deal to look like just as much of an albatross as Wells' does. While Reyes is only 29 entering the 2012 season, he quite obviously had his career year, and while some speedsters maintain their swiftness on the basepaths through their careers, they lose power, and if Reyes loses the minimal power he has, he will be Juan Pierre at shortstop. Realistically, this is a .290/.350/.450 player at best, and I'm just not sure that an .800 OPS with speed at shortstop is worth $18-20 million a year through 2018 when plenty of guys in MLB could produce a somewhat similar OPS and make a third of what Reyes will make. Buyers beware.
Prediction: The Marlins make a major play at Reyes, but refuse to go high enough to meet Reyes' lofty demands. Brewers; 6 years, $110 million
4. C.J. Wilson, SP
2010-2011 averages: 16-8, 3.14 ERA, 214 IP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9
C.J. Wilson may have divebombed in the playoffs, but he's still the best free agent pitcher available this year and will contend for a $100 million contract. I'm pretty sure he's priced himself out of that market though, and is more of a $80 million-ish pitcher on the open market now. I've always thought he'd get an A.J. Burnett type deal, and that's about what I'll project for him. The Rangers ace has only been a starter for two years, and the experiment has worked beautifully. He's been a solid starting pitcher, and realistically by the numbers, has been the equivalent of an up-and-coming ace. Wilson's topped 200 innings in both seasons, and kept the ball in the park in Arlington (49.3% ground balls, .5 HR/9). If you can pitch in Arlington, you can pitch anywhere.
An interesting point about Wilson's success was that he had the third lowest BABIP on groundballs, and that Wilson has induced more double plays than all but three MLB pitchers over the past two years. His performance will fall off at least slightly almost wherever he goes, as Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre is quite possibly the best defensive left side of an infield in baseball, but he's still a quality pitcher, and the best bet of any in this class. I see a middling team signing him to lead their rotation in a hopeful effort to make a playoff push.'
Prediction: The Nationals, Marlins, and Phillies all go in on him, but the Nationals come away with him on a 5 year, $85 million deal.
5. Yu Darvish, SP
I will be completely honest, I'm not very familiar with Yu Darvish's arsenal or scouting report, so for that, I'll turn to another source:
Darvish is only 25, so this is the best time to sign the young Japanese starter. As we know from the Daisuke Matsuzaka posting, first, an MLB team must make a silent bid for the RIGHTS to negotiate with Darvish. That will likely take $50+ million alone. After that, whatever team wins will have a 30-day negotiating period with him to agree on contract terms. If Darvish isn't satisfied with the contract, he will return to Nippon, and the Ham Fighters will receive $50 million just for offering Darvish up, so MLB teams place a premium on signing the player should they win his rights. Darvish has the highest upside of any pitcher in this class since he's so young, but also could bust out as many Japanese pitchers have. This is the ultimate risk/reward signing of this group, especially since teams have to pay $50 million up front to talk to him. This just screams Yankees, and I'm picking them to sign him.
Prediction: Yankees; $55 million posting fee, 6 years, $55 million
6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
2009-2011 averages: 118 games played, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 62 R, .286/.344/.491, 120 OPS+
Ramirez was bandied about at the trade deadline, but he ultimately turned down the trades with his no trade clause, saying he wanted to remain in Chicago. However, now he's in free agency, and money talks far more when there's $40 million on the table elsewhere from a winning team. Ramirez is one of the better hitting 3rd basemen in baseball, as his .871 OPS was only behind Beltre's .896 OPS at 3rd base. This past year was Aramis' best since 2008, mainly because he stayed healthy for 149 games. Aramis is another one of those guys that you can count on hitting the DL once every year. Regardless, he's a valuable bat in any lineup. The biggest drawback of Aramis is that he is one of the worst fielding 3rd basemen in baseball. Fangraphs ranked him second worst of qualifying 3rd basemen (only Mark Reynolds was worse, and he was horrible). Any team signing him is doing so purely for the bat. Aramis surely wants at least a 3 year deal in FA, and possibly more. I don't see any team committing to more than 3 years for him, but he'll get a hefty payday.
Aramis may be a butcher in the field at third base, but his bat is one of the best at the position, and many teams could use him for that simple fact. He's a top ten third baseman probably right now, so contenders who need another bat in the lineup at 3B need to go for it with Aramis. There's one perfect situation for him, where he could play next to Jhonny Peralta, and finally put Brandon Inge back in Toledo where he belongs permanently.
Prediction: Tigers; 3 years, $39 million.
7. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
Rollins is the second best shortstop available this offseason, and given that shortstop is a premium position, I fully expect him to draw more of a market than he should. Rollins is still an above average shortstop, but how far above average, and is he going to maintain the production over the four or five-year deal he is demanding? Looking at his stats really puts what he is in perspective.
Let's compare his 2006-2008 average to his 2009-2011:
2006-2008 averages: 152 games played, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 114 R, 41 SB, .284/.342/.485, 108 OPS+
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
It's a startling difference. 108 points of OPS difference changed him from an above average hitter at every position to an above average hitter (somewhat) only at shortstop. Rollins really isn't the same player he used to be. Part of that can be credited to the fact the Phillies' whole offense has declined over the past couple years, but before this year, they were an elite offense, that Rollins led off for. Additionally he seems to be a bigger injury risk now than he once was. Yet again, looking at the three year statistics shows that Rollins isn't quite the find in free agency that many thought he was. He's a good shortstop but nothing great, and certainly not worth the money he's going to see. On the bright side, he walks more than he once did. On the downside, his BABIP has been below .280 the past three years, and that's not a blip, that's a trend. His line drive rate is down on average, and his flyball rate is up, while he's not homering as much as in his prime. Rollins is still a useful shortstop, but don't get it twisted, he's nothing extremely special. Similarly to Pujols, it's tough to see Rollins, the face of the Phillies' resurgence, leaving the organization to go elsewhere. In a Jeter-esque move, will the Phillies overpay their shortstop because of his impact on the organization over time, and keep him in the fold due to lack of better options? I say no, because the Phillies have a young SS waiting in the wings for 2013, and don't want to pay him for the sake of paying him.
Prediction: Giants; 4 years, $50 million
8. Carlos Beltran, OF
2009-2011 averages: 96 games played, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 50 R, 6 SB, .298/.384/.497, 141 OPS+
Beltran managed to put together a full season this year, avoiding most injuries, and as a result posted a .910 OPS and 22 HRs. His performance didn't suffer in the Giants' poor lineup either, so Beltran looks to still be an elite hitter. The problem with him always has been and always will be his injury history. In 2009, he played 81 games and in 2010 played 64. He's a walking injury, moreso than almost any player in baseball. When he's on the field though, he's dynamic. He's a patient hitter as well, drawing walks in 12% of his at bats in 2011. Beltran's BABIP was a bit higher than normal (.324 vs. .303 career) and he also hit groundballs at an unusually low frequency (only 39% of batted balls) in combination with 21% line drives, but those statistics are close to his averages. Beltran can be counted on for an .875 OPS year-in and year-out still, but the counting stats are very unreliable. As far as his fielding goes, he's still an alright right fielder when healthy, but whatever team signs him will likely want to put him at DH often. Beltran expressed displeasure for DH'ing in July during trade talks, but the Red Sox can offer him a half-right field and half-DH job to prolong his health and appease his requests. It makes too much sense to me to not happen.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $39 million
9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.89 ERA, 66 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 10.8 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
There is a glut of closers available this offseason, and despite the cries of "Papelblown" I hear coming from Boston right now, Papelbon is easily the best available reliever. In 2011 he had the best year of his career. He posted a 1.53 FIP along with 12.17 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and a 0.42 HR/9. He seemed nearly unhittable this year, and posted a 3.0 WAR season, which is almost unthinkable for a reliever, especially considering that he only pitched in 63 games. Papelbon's pitch arsenal is pretty well-advertised by now, he's got a fastball that can touch high 90's or 100, and a slider and splitter that he throws about 25% combined just to keep batters honest. His breaking pitches were more effective this year than ever before, as his splitter was a full 2.3 runs above average for every 100 times he threw it, a phenomenal figure. His velocity is always constant and he's never really been an injury risk, but he's also never really been one to pitch more than one inning in an appearance. He pretty consistently averages exactly 1 inning per appearance and hasn't ever topped 67 appearances in his career, so for more liberal managers, Papelbon's usage may be a concern. But that's about the only downside to Papelbon, and it's not much of one, as most closers don't appear more than 70 times anyhow. The Red Sox can't afford to lose Papelbon, and will pay what it takes to keep him in the fold.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $45 million
10. Roy Oswalt, SP
2009-2011 averages: 10-10, 3.47 ERA, 28 starts, 177 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
The H2O rotation that was hyped beyond belief has come to a halt after a very short life, as Halladay and Hamels remain Phillies, while Oswalt's $16 million option was wisely declined. Oswalt's back problems have flared up again and seem to be haunting him as his career drags on. The fact of the matter is, it's tough to count on him for a full season. However, when he's on the mound, he's still a #2 pitcher in most rotations. His strikeouts have returned to their normal levels in 2011 after he posted an 8.2 K/9 in 2010. His FIP has always been great, and he posted a 3.44 FIP and 3.95 xFIP this year (3.35 FIP and 3.58 xFIP career). Oswalt does seem to be changing as a pitcher steadily but surely. The most noticeable change this year was the higher reliance on his fastball, throwing it 60% of the time in 2011 versus 55% in 2010. In 2010 when he threw his slider 15% of the time and his curve 10% of the time, he posted 2 more strikeouts per 9 innings, and a 2.76 ERA for the year. This year, he threw his fastball more, and his average velocity dropped a full mile per hour for the second consecutive year, but his combination of that and his changeup formed a formidable combination down the stretch of the season. This Fangraphs article goes into great detail about Oswalt's 2011 season and shows why there's reason to be optimistic about his future. He quickly realized that his sinker wasn't working and ditched it in favor of his fastball (which re-gained velocity as the season pressed on). He became a fastball-changeup pitcher after revamping his changeup grip in 2010, and it seems to have worked down the stretch for him. Removing May and June from his season, when he was potentially battling injury, Oswalt was a phenomenal starter.
He presents a bargain for a contender that needs a finishing piece. Teams that should inquire on Oswalt include Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, and plenty of other teams. He'll attract a strong market, and he'll need no more than two years in all likelihood.
Prediction: Toronto; 2 years, $24 million
2009-2011 averages: 162 games played, 39 HR, 115 RBI, 97 R, .287/.409/.547, 155 OPS+
Prince is the second high-profile hitter available this offseason, and a fantastic middle of the order hitter to add to any lineup. Fielder posted the second best season of his career by pretty much any metric. His .299/.415/.566 line was only topped by his 2009 season. He had a 5.5 WAR season this year, and played almost every game again. Baseball analysts and executives alike have expressed concern about how Prince's 5'11" and 275 pound frame will hold up over the next 7 years, but Fielder has never missed more than 6 games in his career which sets those doubts aside. Separating the aspects that make up Wins Above Replacement (Batting, Fielding, Positional, Replacement, Base Running), Fielder was actually 5th in MLB in batting, making him the fifth most valuable hitter. That's pretty impressive especially considering that his WAR would be higher except that he plays at a traditional power hitting position (1st base is the easiest position to play, so WAR docks players accordingly).
For a guy named Fielder though, he sure doesn't acknowledge that part of the game. He was the fifth worst fielding first basemen in baseball (granted, the four worse fielders were far lower in grading). For this reason, it's likely he'll attract a heavy market in the AL, where teams can play him both at first base and slot him occasionally (or mainly) at DH.
Overall, I think Fielder is the second best free agent available, but the most interesting facet of this free agent group is the fact that its two premier players are at the same position. It'll be interesting to watch if he or Pujols sets the market for first basemen. I have a feeling Fielder will sign after Pujols, and likely for a deal approaching (if not surpassing) Mark Texieira's 8 year, $180 million deal ($22.5 million per year). If anyone in this offseason gets a deal longer than 7 years, it really should be Prince, as he's only 27. Most players hit their prime in their early 30s, so Prince would hypothetically only be beginning his decline towards the end of his deal.
Prediction: Blue Jays; 8 years, $185 million
3. Jose Reyes
2010-2011 averages: 130 games played, 9 HR, 49 RBI, 92 R, 34 SB, .309/.352/.460, 122 OPS+
Jose Reyes and C.C. Sabathia's free agent futures have been the central storylines of the New York baseball media this season. Well, C.C. signed an extension that'll guarantee him an extra $30 million, and C.C. only had to add one year to his deal ($25 million salary in 2016, and $5 million buyout in 2017 or $25 million salary in 2017). Reyes looks like he'll be the only one darting from the New York market, and his possibilities are limitless. Given that he's not a middle of the order hitter, he won't approach the Pujols and Fielder contracts. However, he is at an important defensive position, and offers a different type of threat to prospective buyers. His blazing speed gives pitching batteries fits trying to hold him down, and he's a feisty hitter at the plate, hitting .300 annually, as well as usually doing it at leadoff, putting his offense in a good position. Reyes' case for a big contract in 2011 actually seems to be about on par with Carl Crawford's argument in 2010. Reyes obviously has the injury history following him around, but he strikes out less than Carl Crawford and is a switch-hitter without a major split. He also plays a far more important defensive position (his fielding is average, but an average shortstop is still worth far more than a great left fielder) and doesn't complain about where he hits in the lineup. Crawford's public demand that he not be slotted at leadoff and that he hit third was ridiculous, and because of it, Crawford was the $142 million #7 hitter most of this year. Reyes at least will hit where he's set in the line-up and for that reason seems to be a better team player.
Reyes is the main reason I included the averages over multiple seasons. His 2011 season was above what can be reasonably expected from him (he hit .337/.384/.493 vs. his .292/.341/.441 career line, sound like Carl Crawford much?) and he's injury prone as demonstrated by his 130 game per season averagea. He's good for two DL stints a year in all likelihood (only one if he's lucky), and I had to omit 2009 from the average as he only played 36 games that year.
Reyes is set to be this free agent class' Carl Crawford. He won't get Crawford money, but he's going to get very, very close. I fully expect him to top $100 million and to push a Vernon Wells-caliber deal (7 years, $126 million). Unfortunately, in about four years, I'd expect Reyes' deal to look like just as much of an albatross as Wells' does. While Reyes is only 29 entering the 2012 season, he quite obviously had his career year, and while some speedsters maintain their swiftness on the basepaths through their careers, they lose power, and if Reyes loses the minimal power he has, he will be Juan Pierre at shortstop. Realistically, this is a .290/.350/.450 player at best, and I'm just not sure that an .800 OPS with speed at shortstop is worth $18-20 million a year through 2018 when plenty of guys in MLB could produce a somewhat similar OPS and make a third of what Reyes will make. Buyers beware.
Prediction: The Marlins make a major play at Reyes, but refuse to go high enough to meet Reyes' lofty demands. Brewers; 6 years, $110 million
4. C.J. Wilson, SP
2010-2011 averages: 16-8, 3.14 ERA, 214 IP, 1.215 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9
C.J. Wilson may have divebombed in the playoffs, but he's still the best free agent pitcher available this year and will contend for a $100 million contract. I'm pretty sure he's priced himself out of that market though, and is more of a $80 million-ish pitcher on the open market now. I've always thought he'd get an A.J. Burnett type deal, and that's about what I'll project for him. The Rangers ace has only been a starter for two years, and the experiment has worked beautifully. He's been a solid starting pitcher, and realistically by the numbers, has been the equivalent of an up-and-coming ace. Wilson's topped 200 innings in both seasons, and kept the ball in the park in Arlington (49.3% ground balls, .5 HR/9). If you can pitch in Arlington, you can pitch anywhere.
An interesting point about Wilson's success was that he had the third lowest BABIP on groundballs, and that Wilson has induced more double plays than all but three MLB pitchers over the past two years. His performance will fall off at least slightly almost wherever he goes, as Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre is quite possibly the best defensive left side of an infield in baseball, but he's still a quality pitcher, and the best bet of any in this class. I see a middling team signing him to lead their rotation in a hopeful effort to make a playoff push.'
Prediction: The Nationals, Marlins, and Phillies all go in on him, but the Nationals come away with him on a 5 year, $85 million deal.
5. Yu Darvish, SP
I will be completely honest, I'm not very familiar with Yu Darvish's arsenal or scouting report, so for that, I'll turn to another source:
He is right-handed, and throws from a three-quarters arm slot in a drop-and-drive motion. He has bulked up in recent years and is around 220 pounds, and is tall- around 6’5″. His fastball is in the 94 to 97 range. He has a 80mph slider-curveball combo pitch with a great break. He also throws a bunch of other pitches to confuse batters, such as cutter, change-up, two-seam fastball, and splitter. He stopped using the screwball because he got injured using it. His work ethic, conditioning, and stamina are legendary.If you're interested, his final start for Nippon can be watched here. And this link charts each pitch he threw through the game in order, classifying the type of pitch and the speed of each pitch. He does have great stuff, you can tell even from watching a limited portion of the game, but I did think he was somewhat wild.
Darvish is only 25, so this is the best time to sign the young Japanese starter. As we know from the Daisuke Matsuzaka posting, first, an MLB team must make a silent bid for the RIGHTS to negotiate with Darvish. That will likely take $50+ million alone. After that, whatever team wins will have a 30-day negotiating period with him to agree on contract terms. If Darvish isn't satisfied with the contract, he will return to Nippon, and the Ham Fighters will receive $50 million just for offering Darvish up, so MLB teams place a premium on signing the player should they win his rights. Darvish has the highest upside of any pitcher in this class since he's so young, but also could bust out as many Japanese pitchers have. This is the ultimate risk/reward signing of this group, especially since teams have to pay $50 million up front to talk to him. This just screams Yankees, and I'm picking them to sign him.
Prediction: Yankees; $55 million posting fee, 6 years, $55 million
6. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
2009-2011 averages: 118 games played, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 62 R, .286/.344/.491, 120 OPS+
Ramirez was bandied about at the trade deadline, but he ultimately turned down the trades with his no trade clause, saying he wanted to remain in Chicago. However, now he's in free agency, and money talks far more when there's $40 million on the table elsewhere from a winning team. Ramirez is one of the better hitting 3rd basemen in baseball, as his .871 OPS was only behind Beltre's .896 OPS at 3rd base. This past year was Aramis' best since 2008, mainly because he stayed healthy for 149 games. Aramis is another one of those guys that you can count on hitting the DL once every year. Regardless, he's a valuable bat in any lineup. The biggest drawback of Aramis is that he is one of the worst fielding 3rd basemen in baseball. Fangraphs ranked him second worst of qualifying 3rd basemen (only Mark Reynolds was worse, and he was horrible). Any team signing him is doing so purely for the bat. Aramis surely wants at least a 3 year deal in FA, and possibly more. I don't see any team committing to more than 3 years for him, but he'll get a hefty payday.
Aramis may be a butcher in the field at third base, but his bat is one of the best at the position, and many teams could use him for that simple fact. He's a top ten third baseman probably right now, so contenders who need another bat in the lineup at 3B need to go for it with Aramis. There's one perfect situation for him, where he could play next to Jhonny Peralta, and finally put Brandon Inge back in Toledo where he belongs permanently.
Prediction: Tigers; 3 years, $39 million.
7. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
Rollins is the second best shortstop available this offseason, and given that shortstop is a premium position, I fully expect him to draw more of a market than he should. Rollins is still an above average shortstop, but how far above average, and is he going to maintain the production over the four or five-year deal he is demanding? Looking at his stats really puts what he is in perspective.
Let's compare his 2006-2008 average to his 2009-2011:
2006-2008 averages: 152 games played, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 114 R, 41 SB, .284/.342/.485, 108 OPS+
2009-2011 averages: 128 games played, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 78 R, 26 SB, .255/.316/.403, 91 OPS+
It's a startling difference. 108 points of OPS difference changed him from an above average hitter at every position to an above average hitter (somewhat) only at shortstop. Rollins really isn't the same player he used to be. Part of that can be credited to the fact the Phillies' whole offense has declined over the past couple years, but before this year, they were an elite offense, that Rollins led off for. Additionally he seems to be a bigger injury risk now than he once was. Yet again, looking at the three year statistics shows that Rollins isn't quite the find in free agency that many thought he was. He's a good shortstop but nothing great, and certainly not worth the money he's going to see. On the bright side, he walks more than he once did. On the downside, his BABIP has been below .280 the past three years, and that's not a blip, that's a trend. His line drive rate is down on average, and his flyball rate is up, while he's not homering as much as in his prime. Rollins is still a useful shortstop, but don't get it twisted, he's nothing extremely special. Similarly to Pujols, it's tough to see Rollins, the face of the Phillies' resurgence, leaving the organization to go elsewhere. In a Jeter-esque move, will the Phillies overpay their shortstop because of his impact on the organization over time, and keep him in the fold due to lack of better options? I say no, because the Phillies have a young SS waiting in the wings for 2013, and don't want to pay him for the sake of paying him.
Prediction: Giants; 4 years, $50 million
8. Carlos Beltran, OF
2009-2011 averages: 96 games played, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 50 R, 6 SB, .298/.384/.497, 141 OPS+
Beltran managed to put together a full season this year, avoiding most injuries, and as a result posted a .910 OPS and 22 HRs. His performance didn't suffer in the Giants' poor lineup either, so Beltran looks to still be an elite hitter. The problem with him always has been and always will be his injury history. In 2009, he played 81 games and in 2010 played 64. He's a walking injury, moreso than almost any player in baseball. When he's on the field though, he's dynamic. He's a patient hitter as well, drawing walks in 12% of his at bats in 2011. Beltran's BABIP was a bit higher than normal (.324 vs. .303 career) and he also hit groundballs at an unusually low frequency (only 39% of batted balls) in combination with 21% line drives, but those statistics are close to his averages. Beltran can be counted on for an .875 OPS year-in and year-out still, but the counting stats are very unreliable. As far as his fielding goes, he's still an alright right fielder when healthy, but whatever team signs him will likely want to put him at DH often. Beltran expressed displeasure for DH'ing in July during trade talks, but the Red Sox can offer him a half-right field and half-DH job to prolong his health and appease his requests. It makes too much sense to me to not happen.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $39 million
9. Jonathan Papelbon, RP
2009-2011 averages: 65 games, 2.89 ERA, 66 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 10.8 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
There is a glut of closers available this offseason, and despite the cries of "Papelblown" I hear coming from Boston right now, Papelbon is easily the best available reliever. In 2011 he had the best year of his career. He posted a 1.53 FIP along with 12.17 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and a 0.42 HR/9. He seemed nearly unhittable this year, and posted a 3.0 WAR season, which is almost unthinkable for a reliever, especially considering that he only pitched in 63 games. Papelbon's pitch arsenal is pretty well-advertised by now, he's got a fastball that can touch high 90's or 100, and a slider and splitter that he throws about 25% combined just to keep batters honest. His breaking pitches were more effective this year than ever before, as his splitter was a full 2.3 runs above average for every 100 times he threw it, a phenomenal figure. His velocity is always constant and he's never really been an injury risk, but he's also never really been one to pitch more than one inning in an appearance. He pretty consistently averages exactly 1 inning per appearance and hasn't ever topped 67 appearances in his career, so for more liberal managers, Papelbon's usage may be a concern. But that's about the only downside to Papelbon, and it's not much of one, as most closers don't appear more than 70 times anyhow. The Red Sox can't afford to lose Papelbon, and will pay what it takes to keep him in the fold.
Prediction: Red Sox; 3 years, $45 million
10. Roy Oswalt, SP
2009-2011 averages: 10-10, 3.47 ERA, 28 starts, 177 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
The H2O rotation that was hyped beyond belief has come to a halt after a very short life, as Halladay and Hamels remain Phillies, while Oswalt's $16 million option was wisely declined. Oswalt's back problems have flared up again and seem to be haunting him as his career drags on. The fact of the matter is, it's tough to count on him for a full season. However, when he's on the mound, he's still a #2 pitcher in most rotations. His strikeouts have returned to their normal levels in 2011 after he posted an 8.2 K/9 in 2010. His FIP has always been great, and he posted a 3.44 FIP and 3.95 xFIP this year (3.35 FIP and 3.58 xFIP career). Oswalt does seem to be changing as a pitcher steadily but surely. The most noticeable change this year was the higher reliance on his fastball, throwing it 60% of the time in 2011 versus 55% in 2010. In 2010 when he threw his slider 15% of the time and his curve 10% of the time, he posted 2 more strikeouts per 9 innings, and a 2.76 ERA for the year. This year, he threw his fastball more, and his average velocity dropped a full mile per hour for the second consecutive year, but his combination of that and his changeup formed a formidable combination down the stretch of the season. This Fangraphs article goes into great detail about Oswalt's 2011 season and shows why there's reason to be optimistic about his future. He quickly realized that his sinker wasn't working and ditched it in favor of his fastball (which re-gained velocity as the season pressed on). He became a fastball-changeup pitcher after revamping his changeup grip in 2010, and it seems to have worked down the stretch for him. Removing May and June from his season, when he was potentially battling injury, Oswalt was a phenomenal starter.
He presents a bargain for a contender that needs a finishing piece. Teams that should inquire on Oswalt include Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Minnesota, the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, and plenty of other teams. He'll attract a strong market, and he'll need no more than two years in all likelihood.
Prediction: Toronto; 2 years, $24 million
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