10/26/11

Debris Caution: TUMS Fast Relief 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

I guess I'm cursed. Heading into Sunday's race at Talladega it seemed that Kevin Harvick was going to be a virtual lock for a top-10 finish at least. If nothing else he had avoided the big wrecks and always came out unscathed. Well, we all know how that turned out and even though it was a Richard Childress Racing car in Victory Lane that did little to improve my mood. Harvick has sunk like a stone to fifth and though he's not out of it, he's currently in limbo at 26 points out of first. He's the last of the drivers that have a realistic chance but it's at the longest of shots.

With the Sprint Cup series heading to Martinsville this week it seems that we are going to see a Jack Roush championship for the first time since 2004. Kurt Busch won the very first Nextel Cup and the previous year it was Matt Kenseth who took home the final Winston Cup. Right now Carl Edwards is points leader and his closest competitor is Matt Kenseth who is 14 points out. Just about the only thing I've gotten right in this Chase has been that I thought Edwards would be the highest finishing Roush car but knowing my luck we'll see Kenseth make a run starting this week. Edwards hasn't found much success at Martinsville, with only four top-10s in 14 career starts, one of those going for a top-5, and an average finish of 16.9. However, if there's anything we have learned about Edwards it's that this year he is content to put in a strong finish even if he isn't competing for a win. His finishes in the Chase has been 4th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 11th and he hasn't been a threat to really win any of those races. That's the mark of a champion-to-be but he has to continue the trend with the man who made consistency a bad word nipping on his heels. 

Kenseth has been more up-and-down than Edwards in the Chase. His finishes so far are 21st, 6th, 5th, 4th, 1st, and 18th last week. Even with that run of four top-5s he barely made a dent in Edwards' lead. Right now he's in second mostly because the other drivers around him (Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart) have had some bad finishes. Kenseth has never won in 23 starts at Martinsville and he only has seven top-10s, two top-5s, and an average finish of 15.8. Even with the trends going against them at this track it's highly likely that we'll see both of them in the top-10. I don't think either of these two will challenge for the win but I don't think anyone will jump up and surpass either of them in the points. Then again, if Edwards has a DNF here it leaves the door wide open for anyone to jump up and make this thing exciting.

Brad Keselowski and Tony Stewart are only 18 and 19 points behind Carl Edwards respectively and represent the two best chances to have a non-Roush championship. Kes has only raced three times in the Sprint Cup at Martinsville and he has an average finish of 13.7 with one top-10. Stewart has two wins but none of those have come in the last five years and his recent finishes (16.3 average finish) are off the pace of his all-time success (13.9 average finish, 13 top-10s in 25 starts). Both of these drivers know if they want to gain even an inch of ground that they have to finish in the top-5 or win and I think that the both of them could gamble a bit. Stewart is more likely to take a risk but I don't doubt that if Brad is in a spot to win the race that he wouldn't stay out on a late pit stop sequence. Both of them should be near the front mixing it up with the #99 and #17 but I think one of the top four is going to face some adversity. I'm not quite sure who it will be but someone is going to fall off the pace methinks.

10/25/11

Week 7 NFL Quick Hits

Atlanta @ Detroit - The Lions are coming back to Earth. It doesn't matter if Ndamukong Suh was talking trash or not, Detroit is facing some adversity. The Falcons went up to Ford Field and were simply the more physical team that endured every punch that the Lions threw at them. Matt Ryan suffered a leg injury that looked a lot worse than it actually was, he'll be fine after the bye week. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, was limping after his ankle sprain. The Lions say it's a non-issue and I'll take their word for it, I see no reason that he won't start against Denver this weekend. Michael Turner continued the trend of teams being able to run all over Detroit and we may have a blueprint to get through this tough defense. Sure, Matt Forte, Frank Gore, and Turner are all top shelf guys but that's three straight weeks that a back has had over 100 yards on the ground against them.

Denver @ Miami - It was as though the Dolphins realized they were leading and had to correct that mistake. Give Tim Tebow all the credit in the world, he was 4/14 for 40 yards and finished 13/27 with 161 yards and two touchdowns, but then again these are the Dolphins. There were some breakdowns of the two-point conversion that showed Miami read pass in a spread formation that was blatantly set up to be a Tebow run. Maybe it's from my years of watching him destroy teams in the SEC, perhaps it was the fact he had just thrown two short touchdowns, but there was no reason the Broncos were going to put the ball in the air there. Matt Moore played well on the other side and I can't really say anything snarky about his performance. Denver's defense kept Daniel Thomas in check and Champ Bailey kept Brandon Marshall under wraps for the most part (he did have six catches, but for only 61 yards and no scores). Willis McGahee broke his hand and that opens the door for Knowshon Moreno, this may be his final shot as a starter and if he doesn't run with it he may forever be a third down, pass catching back.

Houston @ Tennessee - Arian Foster is really, really, really good. Earlier in the year everyone (including myself) was talking about Ben Tate and how he could step in and the Texans offense wouldn't miss a step. Foster proved that he's on a totally different level on Sunday and he destroyed the Titans' defense. Arian had 115 yards on the ground, 119 yards through the air, and three touchdowns. Ben Tate is a really good back and he also got 100 yards in the game but the Texans are a totally different team with a healthy Arian Foster. The best part is that they put up 41 points with Andre Johnson and their defense held the Titans to 148 net yards. Chris Johnson was booed by the Tennessee fans once again and I'm be honest, I don't have a clue what's with him. He looked tentative and lacked the ability to make a cut and just burst through the hole. Maybe it's conditioning, perhaps it's the long holdout, or maybe CJ has already peaked. We'll have to see but this team needs Johnson to do more than 18 yards on 10 carries.

Chicago @ Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay was the home team in London, I guess that makes sense. They made things interesting at the end but by then they had spotted the Bears a 16 point lead and without any threat in the backfield the Bears were able to just keep rushing Josh Freeman. Last week's hero, Earnest Graham, tore his Achilles and is out for the year which is a huge loss for a team that was already playing without LeGarrette Blount. Tampa is already saying they will address the running back situation during their bye week but they need more than that to go anywhere near what I predicted in the preseason. Matt Forte had another huge game and I just have no words left. Cris Carter put it best this morning on Mike & Mike, saying something to the effect of Forte is at a major disadvantage. His supervisor (Mike Martz) sometimes forgets he exists and prefers to pass while his boss (Jerry Angelo) doesn't really appreciate or want to pay him. If you think the Bears offense is pitiful to watch nowadays, without any real receivers, imagine what they'd be like if you took Forte off that team. Pay the man, Angelo, he may be the best in the league at his position.

Seattle @ Cleveland - Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

San Diego @ Cleveland - Man, did the Chargers blow it or what? They were up 21-10 at halftime and then decided to continue covering Plaxico Burress one-on-one in the red zone despite the fact that he got an easy touchdown in the second quarter. This may be a game that rights the Jets' season and was absolutely a game they had to have but they can probably send Norv Turner a fruit basket or something for the win. Philip Rivers continues to be absolutely mediocre and Ryan Mathews suffered a thumb injury that isn't a big deal but he seems to get beat up every single game. Mark Sanchez bought himself a week of not having to listen to people talking about trading up to get Andrew Luck but next week we may find ourself talking about the same old Jets. Rex Ryan said after the game he wanted to get Shonn Greene more carries and yes, Greene had a good game, but the dude has trademarked the two yard rush. Why they pay Santonio Holmes mounds of money to catch two balls for 24 yards is beyond me.

Washington @ Carolina - You just knew that Cam Newton was going to win one of these games. The Redskins are who we thought they were and John Beck looked like, well, John Beck circa 2007-2008. The Redskins suffered a huge loss as Tim Hightower went down in this game with an ACL tear and will be out for the year so that means everyone's favorite fantasy football sleeper, Ryan Torain, will be the man in D.C. The Panthers continue being the most exciting team in the NFL, with Newton running and throwing all over the place, Jonathan Stewart once again outperforming DeAngelo Williams (next week will be the opposite), and Steve Smith catching bombs. After the mediocre years in Carolina, Smith was a forgotten man and now he's right back in the debate for best deep threat in the NFL and arguably being one of the best at his position. Too bad for their fans that the defense can't stop anyone worth a crap but that just makes them that more exciting!

2012 MLB Free Agents: Catchers

With the offseason rapidly approaching, I'll be previewing the free agents available at each position for the 2012 MLB season.  I'll provide as detailed of an analysis of each player's season as possible, and attempt to project their future earnings or destinations if possible.  First up on the list: Catchers.


Admittedly, this is a weak market for catchers, and some GMs claim it's a weak market overall.  I don't buy that it's weak overall, but certainly, I agree with the notion that finding a starting catcher this offseason will be tough for teams.  There's really only one good starting catcher available (Ramon Hernandez), and the rest are platoon players or miscast as catchers (I'm looking at you Jorge Posada and Ryan Doumit).  Regardless of what I just said though, there is still value to be found in this free agent catcher group, so let's dive in and take a look at the available catchers in the 2011-12 offseason.

Ryan Doumit (.303/.353/.477, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 1.8 WAR in 236 PA):  Doumit is easily the most talented hitter of the group available in free agency this offseason, now that his 2012-2013 option has been declined (2 years, $15.5 million).  You don't find switch-hitting catchers with little to no split that can OPS over .800 in free agency often, so he'll be a highly sought after name, and the Pirates will miss him greatly.  The problem is, he's also the biggest defensive liability behind the plate of arguably any catcher in baseball.  Doumit is terrible at framing pitches (in this Baseball Prospectus study, he's the poster child for what not to do when framing pitches, along with Jason Varitek) and only caught 11 of 90 steal attempts in 2010 (100 games played).

Did I catch it?  


Players are encouraged to run on Doumit, probably more than against any catcher not named Jason Varitek, as he sees almost one steal attempt per game (the most attempted steals against a team this year was 153 against the Red Sox, almost 1 per game, to put that in perspective).  Doumit's bat and versatility, however, are special, and make his defensive liabilities tolerable when he can OPS .830.  Doumit has played outfield and first base for Pittsburgh as well, but operated more often than not as a catcher.  Doumit would look very appealing to an AL team as a DH and backup catcher option, or a full-time catcher for a team looking to make a cheap addition.  Due to Doumit's injury history, he probably won't get a long-term deal, but could net a deal in the neighborhood of 3 years with vesting options included.  If an AL team signs him and allows him to DH and catch, he may be able to play a full season.  I'd expect a 3 year deal for about $20 million, which is similar to the top contract in free agency for a catcher last year (John Buck's 3 year, $18 million deal from the Marlins).


Ramon Hernandez (.282/.341/.446, 12 HR, 36 RBI, 2.0 WAR in 328 PA): Hernandez is the crown jewel of this offseason's weak market for free agent catchers, although that's not to say he's a weak addition to any team.  He doesn't have a huge platoon split, meaning he can be a starting catcher for nearly a full season.  His .787 OPS ranked 8th in baseball of all catchers with 250 or more ABs, meaning he's definitely an above-average catcher, and was a borderline elite hitter as a catcher in 2011.  He's still got solid power in his bat, and is a fairly patient hitter at the plate.

The drawbacks with Hernandez are three-fold:

  • His age (36 in May), and tenure in MLB (1,389 games at catcher).  This can wear on his knees, as evidenced by his knee surgery in 2009, knee soreness in 2010, and a shin injury he sustained in 2011.  
  • He qualifies as a Type-A free agent, meaning that if the Reds offer him arbitration and he opts for free agency, a team would have to surrender a first round pick (or a second rounder if their first round pick is in the top 15) to sign him.  The Reds have young prospect Devin Mesoraco, who caught most of the games down the stretch, and Ryan Hanigan is an affordable, serviceable backup.  GMs that need a catcher are desperately hoping that the Reds don't offer him arbitration.  They likely won't, as it'd be silly to pay him $3 million for what is likely 40-50 games of service.
  • His age and injury history prevent him from taking on the full load at the catcher position, as he only caught in 82 games last year and hasn't played in 100 games since 2008.
Hernandez is also a solid defensive catcher, only allowing five passed balls over the past 3 seasons and catching 37% of base stealers this past season, which was one of the highest ratios in the league.  Should Hernandez become a free agent without an arbitration offer, he'll be the most highly sought after catcher.  I'd expect him to get a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd season because he'll be so highly sought after, but nothing longer due to his age and inability to play 120-130 games behind the plate.

Chris Snyder (.271/.376/.396, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 119 PA): Declining Snyder's option was a no-brainer for the Pirates as he went on the 60-day DL to end his season in June due to requiring his 2nd back surgery in as many years.  Now, Snyder hits the free agent market and could be an interesting bargain for someone this year.  Obviously, no one will enter the season counting on Snyder to be their primary starter, but he becomes more interesting, as it looked like this was set to be the breakout season that many (including myself) expected from Snyder after his 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Diamondbacks.  He hit for average for the first time in his career, and still showcased his ridiculous walk rate (13.8% is his lowest BB% over the past 4 years, which is outstanding).  Even when Snyder hits .220, he's more than likely going to be a .350 OBP guy, making him pretty useful.  According to the BP study I've referenced multiple times, Snyder's an above average catcher at framing pitches, and had already saved his team 7 runs with his work in 34 games in 2011 before his injury.  Snyder's a gamble, there's no doubt, but he can be a serviceable backup at the least, with a ceiling of his 2011 production rates.  More likely, his hitting will drop back to his career averages (.231/.333/.394), but that's a fantastic backup and passable starter if just taking his bat into consideration.  He'll find work somewhere, and it may just be back in Pittsburgh.


Kelly Shoppach (.176/.268/.339, 11 HR, 22 RBI, 1.1 WAR in 253 PA): Shoppach's line looks dreadful, and that's because it is.  But hidden beneath the .607 OPS, Shoppach was a fine platoon hitter and can serve that purpose well for another team.  He hit .244/.344/.444 in his 125 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and this trend stretches back for years.  For some reason, the Rays didn't want to utilize him in the best way possible, and gave him more plate appearances against right-handed pitchers than lefties (.115/.192/.239 vs RHP), which they paid for according to DRaysBay:


The below-replacement level production we garnered from the catcher position was a putrid .194/.274/.333 that was good for a 72 wRC+ and 73 OPS+. Thanks to guys like Jeff MathisDrew Butera, and Carlos Corporan, the Rays actually were not last in the Majors when it came to offensive production from the catcher's slot but that is still no excuse for such a horrific stat line.

To make matters worse, the Rays catchers overall value was only +1.3 fWAR which was the sixth worst total in the Majors. The base running was horrible and the defense was only kept above water due to Kelly Shoppach's fine season behind the dish, not at the dish.
 Shoppach was an average fielding catcher and doesn't excel in blocking or framing pitches, but he does excel at throwing out runners.  He threw out 18 of 44 attempted basestealers this year (40.9% CS), which was the top rate in MLB of all catchers who saw more than 25 attempted basestealers.  Shoppach may fit in better with another team that will use him in a better manner, as there is no reason that a .431 OPS against RHP should ever see the lineup (unless you play for Mike Scioscia).  If he goes to a team where he can platoon, he'd be a great lefty-hitting half of a platoon for a couple years.

Jose Molina (.281/.342/.415, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 191 PA): This was very unexpected, as Molina's career line is .241/.286/.344.  It's fairly easy to explain though.  The small sample size, plus a .363 BABIP (his career mark is .293), means that Molina will fall back to earth a bit this year.  Molina is a solid defensive catcher though.  He does suffer in blocking wild pitches (which is unfortunate, as Toronto led the league in wild pitches), but is the best in baseball at getting strikes called on questionable pitches, and that's an invaluable skill.  To put in perspective how much better Jose Molina is than every other catcher, Baseball Prospectus prepared a graph that helped compose a linear model for extra strikes called per pitch:

Yet again, we see, Jose Molina: Very good.  Ryan Doumit: Horrific.
Molina is worlds ahead of everyone else, saving 35 runs every 120 games by getting more called strikes.  It's unlikely that front offices will actually take this into consideration enough, because if they did, they would make Molina a full time catcher, as he'd be worth nearly 3.5 wins above replacement, just based on his catching ability.  Molina should be able to net a better contract since he had an OPS over .750 this season (in limited at bats albeit), so look for him to get about $3-4 million per year if GMs take attention to him.


Jason Varitek (.221/.300/.423, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 0.5 WAR in 250 PA): Jason Varitek may have exhausted his time as a Red Sox catcher, so will anyone else be interested in his services?  The Red Sox like Ryan Lavarnway to be a young, affordable catcher (he posted a .738 OPS in his 43 plate appearances in MLB, and started down the stretch for the Red Sox), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will remain on the Red Sox, likely as the full-time catcher.  He caught 103 games last year and posted a .738 OPS as well (what an odd coincidence).  Varitek made $5 million last year, and surely won't command that again, wherever he looks to go.  Varitek is additionally the worst catcher behind the plate, whether it's throwing out runners or framing pitches.

Jason Varitek struggles to catch a fastball.  Not what you
want from your CATCHER.

He can still post a decent OPS for a catcher, but he also only played in 68 games last year, which is about right for him.


Jorge Posada (.235/.315/.398, 14 HR, 44 RBI, -0.4 WAR in 388 PA):  For a catcher, Posada's hitting is tolerable, but is his defense up to par behind the plate, and can his aging body hold up behind the plate?  Posada apparently believes so, and thinks he can still contribute as a backstop:
"I could catch," said Posada, who is in the final season of a four-year, $52.4 million contract. "I could have (caught) this year. I could have been a backup somewhere, backed somebody up. I don't think I could catch every day, but I could have caught here and there."
Posada had a negative WAR mostly in part because he was primarily a DH, and not a catcher.  Had he caught instead, he would have had a positive WAR score as his slash line translates far better to the catcher position.  Posada was extremely inconsistent, only posting an OPS over .700 in two separate months of the season, which won't bode well for Posada contractually.  On the positive side of Posada's season, he hit .269/.348/.466 against right-handed pitching.  On the downside, he also had a massive home/road split (.878 OPS at home, .524 on the road).   The reality of it is, Posada's lost a lot of his batspeed, but he still can contribute to a team somewhere as a platoon catcher/DH.  His defense behind the plate will be horrible (A recent Baseball Prospectus study rated Posada as the second worst catcher in baseball at framing pitches and a Hardball Times study rated Posada as the second worst catcher in baseball at blocking pitches), but he'll at least provide the occasional off day for the incumbent starter at the position.  He'll essentially have the role that Victor Martinez had for the Tigers this year in his ideal situation, catching about 40-50 games wherever he goes, and possibly being the DH at other times.  He could probably produce a similar slash line in 2012 to his 2011 performance, if not improving on it (this depends largely on what team he goes to and how they'll utilize him).  For a backup that brings as much experience in MLB as Posada does, that's a solid buy.  I think it's likely that an AL East team (The Orioles or Jays) could go in on him, and that the Mariners could be in the mix as well for a cheap option here like Posada on a one-year deal.


Rod Barajas (.230/.287/.430, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 WAR in 337 PA): Barajas has stated that he wants to end his career in a Dodgers uniform, but GM Ned Colletti has made it known that's unlikely, as he said the Dodgers want to "get younger" at catcher in 2012, so Barajas will likely test the market.  His statline reminds me of Miguel Olivo; A low .200s batting average, a sub-.300 OBP and a .400+ SLG with about 20 HRs.  Barajas is probably a better defensive catcher, while Olivo has a far better arm when throwing out basestealers.  I'll cut out the comparison now, but you understand the point I'm getting across; in the free agent market, Barajas and Olivo have very similar values.  Barajas will be 36 to open the 2012 season, and likely will command a one year deal, as he has the last two seasons with the Mets in 2010 and Dodgers in '11.  Olivo got a 2 year, $7 million deal with the Mariners after his career year in Colorado (a career year for a power hitter in Colorado?  Unheard of.), and Barajas will probably HOPE for the same.  Barajas signed a 1 year, $3.25 million deal in LA last year, and should command a similar salary again, as his 2011 season is almost a carbon copy of his 2010 season.  He's a low-end starting option or mentor for an up-and-coming catcher in all likelihood.  The Dodgers could consider him again, but AJ Ellis was impressive in his short MLB stint last year, so I'd expect Ellis to take over full-time catching.

Ivan Rodriguez (.218/.281/.323, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 0.4 WAR in 137 PA): Pudge is far past his prime, but he still actually presents a solid backup option for a team with a young catcher.  He worked with Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores the past couple years in Washington, and likely will get one more MLB opportunity this offseason on a short deal (I'm guessing 1 year, $2 million).  Pudge actually threw out 52% of runners in his short time (13 of 25 basestealers), so his defensive prowess remains a constant.  Unfortunately, he has no power whatsoever, and his discipline this year was uncharacteristically high, as his 7.0% walk rate was his highest since 2004 with the Tigers.  He's a good "veteran presence" and "mentor" and all that other terminology for an old big-name player that will be in the Hall of Fame.  He'll get a contract on name basis and because his defense and game calling are fantastic.

Matt Treanor (.214/.338/.291, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 0.7 WAR in 242 PA): Treanor isn't very impressive anymore, and is one of the worst catchers in baseball at framing pitches (he cost his team 17 runs according to Baseball Prospectus).  It's highly unlikely he's very sought after, and he may just remain with the Rangers or retire.  While Treanor posts a solid walk rate (14% in 2011), he doesn't do anything else well, and for that reason, teams would be wise to pass him over and opt for an in-house option.


Dioner Navarro (.193/.276/.324, 5 HR, 17 RBI, -0.1 WAR in 202 PA): Dioner Navarro is in the same boat as Treanor.  He'll likely be a minor league contract invited to camp, but nothing more.  His defense and arm are average now, and the upside he once had as a Ray never materialized.

10/19/11

Debris Caution: Good Sam Club 500

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.

Jimmie Johnson's late race crash may have also tanked his Sprint Cup aspirations. Johnson lost five spots in the Chase and now sits 35 points out. I'll never count out the #48 team, they've proven time and time again that they can come back from anything, but this is different. While reigning as champion Johnson has never made the killer mistakes and could always salvage any sort if issue. Things are now completely out of his hands and that's definitely not a position you want to be in at this point. 

However, he's still far better off than my championship pick, Jeff Gordon. I'm finally willing to say it, after being bullheaded the past few weeks (and holding an optimistic outlook that bordered on insanity): he's done. He is absolutely, unequivocally done and I don't understand it. Gordon rebounded to have more wins than his past three seasons combined and everything seemed to be clicking. The Chase schedule was very kind to the #24 and though his splits a bit rough when you go from lifetime down to the past ten years and then down to the past five, he's still one of the most talented drivers in the circuit. It's crazy to expect a single stable to win a championship every year but it is a bit of a disappointment for Hendrick Motorsports to have such a poor showing in the Chase this year. I haven't even touched on Dale Earnhardt Jr. but seriously, who expected him to really make a run? 

Their loss, however, is Roush Fenway Racing's gain. Carl Edwards sits atop the points standings and after a win last week Matt Kenseth has vaulted into third. Edwards is scheduled to be a free agent after the season ends but I think a championship would actually make things easier for Roush negotiations. It's awfully hard to leave after winning a title and though they will face stiff competition from Joe Gibbs Racing for his services I don't think there's any way that Jack Roush will let his best driver slip away. That's doubly so if he hoists the Sprint Cup in a few weeks and don't forget that he won the last two races last year (at Phoenix and Homestead respectively). 

Before that, though, there's a race this weekend at Talladega. More-so than any race left on the docket, this is the biggest equalizer and wild card left. You can almost always set your clock for there being a huge pile-up that collects a few Chase drivers. If you're Edwards, Kenseth, or Kevin Harvick you obviously want a win, but the next best thing would be to get out of here with a car that's still running and avoid the "Big One." Edwards is the weakest of the three, in 14 starts he has four top-10s, one top-5, and four DNFs. His average finish of 20.9 actually puts him in a dead even tie with his teammate, Greg Biffile, as the lowest among the RFR cars. Harvick is only five points behind Edwards in points and he's actually one of the best in the series at this track. In his past 19 races at the track (which accounts for the past ten years) he has ten top-10s, six top-5s, a win, and the third highest average finish at 13.5 (you could actually say he's first, the two guys ahead of have six combined races [Geoff Bodine has one, Joey Logano has the other five]). I wouldn't be surprised if Harvick ended up leading the points when it's all said and done and he's also a strong, safe bet to win and run well, if for no other reason than he finishes (zero DNFs). Kenseth, for reference, is marginally better than Edwards in his past 19 starts: four top-10s, two top-5s, four DNFs, average finish of 20.7.

Last week's biggest mover in points was Kyle Busch, who gained four spots and now sits only 18 points out of first. He'll still need Edwards to come back a bit because you can only gain so many points if you're both in the top-5 or 10. Talladega isn't exactly Kyle's best track and he's the worst of Chase qualified drivers in average finish (24.2). He has 13 career starts and two top-10s, one of which went for a win, but the biggest number is the DNFs: five. As we all learned last week, one bad crash that drops you from being in third or fourth to thirty something can be devastating. If Busch wants to reverse his Chase misfortunes he absolutely has to get out of this race intact. Right behind him is Tony Stewart and he is the polar opposite. Smoke has eight top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and a win in his past nineteen races. His average finish of 16.4 is among the best at such a volatile track and I think he's also another strong bet to run well on Sunday. He has four DNFs but that's to be expected of anyone who isn't Robo-Harvick at this track (I also want to note that in his career he has six more starts and only a single additional DNF).

Next up are a pair of teammates, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. I feel like a broken record but once again we can toss out the book on the Blue Deuce. Kes has five career starts with three being top-10s and a win that came in 2009. He's been a bit all over the place in the Chase but I think he'll have a strong showing on Sunday, perhaps upstaging his own teammate. Kurt, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent drivers at this track. Go ahead and pencil him in for a top-10 (12 in his past 19, highest ratio of anyone in the series), maybe a top-5 (five), but don't get too crazy (zero wins). I think the Penske cars will outdo the Roush cars but I don't expect any of them to win. 

After all of that we finally come back to Johnson. Johnson is in purgatory at the moment, being eight points behind Kurt Busch and 25 points ahead of his next closest competitor. He sits 35 points out with five races to go but if there's anyone who can turn the deficit into a cup, it's him. Can he make up seven points over each of the next five races? Absolutely. Will he? Eh, talk to me after this week. He has the most DNFs of anyone in the Sprint Cup the past ten years (his seven are only behind Martin Truex Jr. and Joe Nemechek, who have eight). It was absolutely paramount that JJ have a strong finish last week because this has traditionally been his mulligan track. To his credit, though, nine of the other 12 starts were top-10s, five of those were top-5s, and two were wins. 

After Johnson is basically the land of broken dreams. Dale Jr., Ryan Newman, Gordon, and Denny Hamlin are all well out of contention but of course they're all threats to win on any given week. Well, except Dale Jr. but if he is going to finally break his streak it's a very good chance it will be this Sunday. Jr. has four wins in his past 19 starts and that puts him in a tie with Gordon for the most in the series. Newman has nearly as many DNFs as top-10s (six to seven) so just write him off as a guy whose luck will likely land him in a wreck. Hamlin is interesting in a small sample size, 11 starts, four top-10s with three of those being top-5s, but I'll be honest, no one cares. The #11 has done squat this year after almost being the guy who dethroned Johnson last year and anyone who is holding their breath for him to break through this year may as well be committing suicide.

So all of that writing and I didn't pick a winner. Well, I'll be honest, I have a tough time gauging this race. Johnson could spring back to life and win this week, Gordon could surprise everyone and do something relevant in the Chase, Dale Jr. could finally get his first win, one of the Roush cars may surprise everyone, or Kyle Busch could run away with it. Anything can happen at Talladega and because of that I'm going to take the coward's way out and go with the guy who won't fall off a cliff and embarrass me. I'm going to go with the #29 to win and jump to first in points, scoring a huge shift in momentum that could lead to his first Sprint Cup. That's right, I've given Kevin Harvick the kiss of death and doomed him to score his first DNF at Talladega, but hopefully he reverses my fortunes. 

As far as non-contenders who can score an upset, I mentioned Logano earlier. In five starts he has four top-10s and he may fall over himself and win this Sunday if he can avoid trouble (the other start was a DNF). I also like Juan Pablo Montoya to do well. Montoya has run well at superspeedways and he has three top-5s in nine starts. Clint Bowyer actually won this race last year but I don't think that anyone is expecting a repeat. These three should be near the top of the scoring pole regardless and don't be surprised if any, or all of them become major factors.

10/18/11

Week 6 NFL Quick Hits

St. Louis @ Green Bay - When a winless team faces an undefeated team at this point in the season you can pretty much expect this outcome. The Rams were completely overmatched and nothing seemed to go right for him on Sunday afternoon. Aaron Rodgers continued his MVP level of play but the Rams defense did do him some favors. His touchdown to James Jones looked easy and the 93-yarder featured Jordy Nelson burning Al Harris. Steven Jackson had his best game of the year but had a vintage effort: nearly 100 yards and zero touchdowns. I would say that St. Louis has something to look forward to (besides the World Series) but even with the addition of Brandon Lloyd they may be without Sam Bradford, who is unofficially questionable for their matchup against Dallas.

Buffalo @ NY Giants - The Giants are impossible to gauge. Last week Eli Manning looked like he should be playing for Ole Miss against the Seahawks and on Sunday they beat one of the best team's in the league. Manning didn't turn the ball over and if that trend continues going forward then I don't see any reason the Giants can't win the NFC East. Ahmad Bradshaw had three touchdowns from a yard out and over 100 yards and really the whole offense looked to be chugging on all cylinders. Mario Manningham continued to avoid getting in the end zone and tortured his fantasy owners with a ball that came out as he hit the ground. Buffalo, even in the loss, looked impressive. Fred Jackson may not be the fastest runningback in the league but you wouldn't know it by his 80-yard score (though he did need some nice moves at the end). Ryan Fitzpatrick had arguably his worst game of the year (it's up there with the Cincinnati game) due to some untimely turnovers.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati - I've heard a lot about Cincy's defense (second best in yards per game, behind the Steelers) but I hadn't seen them for myself. I won't put much stock into what they did to the hapless Colts but this is a team that does have staying power. I don't know if they'll make the playoffs, especially when they'd likely have to pass one of Pittsburgh or Baltimore, but I definitely underestimated the Bengals. A.J. Green's success isn't surprising but I'm still surprised to see week in and week out that Andy Dalton hasn't blown up. Jerome Simpson looks fantastic flanking Green on the other side and hopefully for his and this team's future success he stops with the massive amounts of marijuana. Then there's the Colts, who are at least trying I guess. Curtis Painter makes things interesting but it is an amazing dynamic to see how much one player changes a roster.

Carolina @ Atlanta - I'll be honest, I was looking forward to this one to see what kind of show Cam Newton would put on. After watching him tear through the SEC last year and as the quarterback in Carolina this had to be the single worst performance he's put up. Newton threw three interceptions and though he had 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground it was for naught. Even though Carolina led into the fourth it seemed inevitable that the Falcons would come back, especially at home. They were just hanging in there throughout the whole game and all of a sudden the Falcons just turned it on. Michael Turner had 139 yards and looked to reverse the clock for at least one week and without Julio Jones it was Harry Douglas who stepped up. I also want to welcome Jonathan Stewart to the 2011-12 season, he scored his first touchdown of the season from a yard out.

San Francisco @ Detroit - This was billed as the biggest game of the weekend and it didn't disappoint. Every star player seemed to do something at a crucial moment and even the coaches nearly got into a fist fight after the game. In the end, though, it was Frank Gore's hard-nosed running and Alex Smith's timely touchdown pass to Delanie Walker that sealed it for the Niners. Matt Stafford nearly got 300 yards but had to attempt 50 passes (while only completing 56% of them) to get there. The most surprising player of all may have been Michael Crabtree, who was in sync with Smith all day and made big catch after big catch. The Niners line solved Ndamukong Suh (who was held to just two assisted tackles and no sacks) and their defensive front kept the pressure on Stafford throughout the game. The Lions just couldn't do a thing to slow down Aldon Smith. The biggest news to come out of the game, though, is the concussion that Jahvid Best suffered. We're not talking about missing games now, we're talking about a career threatening injury because this is the second one of his season. I don't think it will come to that but it's something to monitor and hopefully we don't see a bright career snuffed out due to head injuries.

Philadelphia @ Washington - If I showed you this box score before the season I doubt anyone would scoff at the idea of the Eagles shutting down the Redskins. Yet with the teams' records and the Redskins in a position to take a stranglehold on the division it was a bit stunning to see. Rex Grossman had a typical "bad Rex" game but this time it was in spectacular fashion, as though he wanted to give the Eagles as many opportunities as possible to continue scoring. Michael Vick didn't light up the Skins like last year but LeSean McCoy practically did. Watching the game, it seemed like every cut and move that McCoy made gave him another 3-5 yards and the Redskins were unable to bring him down when they absolutely had to. John Beck came in and did an admirable job, and in fact he actually made things interesting in the second half. I still think the Redskins defense is quite good but Jim Haslett has to start doing something different. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are fantastic pass rushers but liabilities in coverage. LaRon Landry is amazing at stopping the run but also struggles when he's forced to play away from the line of scrimmage. DeAngelo Hall is a ballhawk and gets a fair share of interceptions but there's a reason that we see just as many games where he is lit up. I just don't know if Washington has the personnel to make it work this year.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh - The Jags kept this one close and made things interesting in the second half. The boxscore is a bit misleading because it was obvious to anyone watching that Rashard Mendenhall could have had four touchdowns if the Steelers needed it. Blaine Gabbert was under duress throughout the game and never got in a sync with anyone. I do have to give the Jags' secondary some credit, though, as they did well in coverage (Ben Roethlisberger only completed 52.2% of his passes). Mike Wallace got  a 28-yard touchdown but was held to only two catches in what may have been an audition by Rashean Mathis. Mathis was put on the trading block by the Jags earlier in the week and at the time of this post he hasn't been traded but we shall see what happens.

Cleveland @ Oakland - It was all hands on deck for the Raiders. Jason Campbell suffered a broken collarbone and Kyle Boller had to come in. Their one touchdown through the air actually came from Shane Lechler on a fake field goal on a 4th and 1. Darren McFadden kept rolling on the ground and the Raiders defense made the Browns one dimensional by taking out their running game. They were also aided by Peyton Hillis' hamstring injury, which could keep him out multiple weeks. Greg Little broke out a little bit with six catches and 72 yards. I'm willing to bet that if Colt McCoy starts looking his way more often that we'll see his stats start to uptick. The biggest thing to happen concerning this game was the fallout of the Campbell injury. The Raiders made a trade earlier today with the Bengals for Carson Palmer, which includes a first round pick this year and a conditional pick next year. The conditional pick is a second rounder that can become a first depending on how Palmer plays. Oh, and the Raiders are also picking up the tab and assume Palmer's entire salary. It's a terrible, awful, dreadful trade but it is an upgrade over Kyle Boller, I guess.

Houston @ Baltimore - Were we all wrong about Houston? I know, they were facing one of the league's best teams on the road without their best player, but still. They're 3-3 and next week's showdown against Tennessee could go a long way towards deciding that division. Baltimore, to their credit, flabbergasted Matt Schaub and it seemed like there was a Raven hanging off of him at every play. The ground game never got going and this one could have been 49-14 and I wouldn't have noticed much of a difference. Joe Flacco has rediscovered Anquan Boldin to great success and if he can do that to keep teams from stacking the box on Ray Rice then this team could very well win the AFC. They're the most complete team in the conference and they're playing at an incredibly high level.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - Can we forget that I wanted to jump off of the Bucs wagon for this year? This is the team I envisioned before the season when I picked them to win the NFC in a major upset and they did it without LeGarrette Blount. Earnest Graham turned back the clock and reminded me of the year when he was a trendy pickup and the next year ended up being a top pick in fantasy football. Graham got 109 yards on the ground and also nabbed two passes for 22 yards. Josh Freeman was also fantastic and everything seemed to click for Tampa Bay. If they play at this level then they may actually have an outside shot to go deep into the playoffs. The Saints, on the other hand, have a lot of questions to answer. Drew Brees threw three picks and he already has eight this year. The running game is a huge question mark, though to be fair their stats are slanted because the team was playing from behind from the second quarter onward. Jimmy Graham looks to be the best tight end in football though he also did destroy Sean Payton, whose leg literally exploded.

Dallas @ New England - I hope you like draw plays. Dallas decided in the second half to go away from Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, instead taking the ball out of Tony Romo's hands and putting the load on DeMarco Murray. After Felix Jones went out with an injury in the second half it was Murray's responsibility but really, I don't understand it. Bryant looked downright invincible at times and one particular juke move caused two Patriot defenders to fall down on themselves. I understand that Romo's psyche is that of a four year old girl and whatever but I'm not blowing smoke about the Patriots' secondary. It is historically bad and literally one of the worst in the history of the NFL and yet Jason Garrett didn't want to exploit this. Even though the game started as a turnover fest you still have to have confidence in your quarterback to get the ball to Bryant, Austin, and Jason Witten against New England. Literally all you have to do is get the ball in their area and they will likely make a catch. Tom Brady looked mortal for the first 57 minutes of the game but at the end he marched his team down the field culminating in an Aaron Herndanez game winning touchdown. Rob Ryan gave Brady fits with his schemes and the Dallas defense executed well but I'll never, ever understand why Dallas went about things that way.

Minnesota @ Chicago - This is the Chicago Bears team that won the NFC North last year. They absolutely dominated the Vikings in every phase of this game. Jay Cutler was sacked only once and as we know, when they keep him upright good things will usually happen (DeAngelo Hall withstanding). Devin Hester must haunt Minnesota fans' dreams because I think he has something like a billion TDs against them. We got to see a sneak peak of the Christian Ponder experience and the results were sort of encouraging, I guess. He was better than Donovan McNabb, who I've railed on all year so I won't bother stating the obvious, but Ponder handled himself well and knows to get the ball to Percy Harvin. The Bears defense kept Adrian Peterson under wraps and when it looked like they would have a shot to get back into the game it was Hester who delivered the dagger. Neither of these teams are likely to make the playoffs but there is a Grand Canyon sized gap between the third and fourth placed teams in the NFC North.

Miami @ NY Jets - Whoever scheduled Monday Night Football this year should be shot. I'll be honest, I didn't watch a second of this game. I just couldn't bear the thought of watching Mark Sanchez vs. Matt Moore and instead I played with my new iPhone all night and went to bed. I felt much more productive than watching the fantastic "Ground and Pound" gameplan of the Jets racked up a whole 104 yards. "Bell Cow" Shonn Greene mustered 74 but he was nearly out gained by Reggie Bush. You know, the guy who isn't even really a runningback. Brandon Marshall made some catches but didn't get thrown out of the game and I'm sure that Santonio Holmes an Plaxico Burress hate Brian Schottenheimer even more. Darrelle Revis did a thing and Sanchez continued to be absolutely mediocre. The end. Screw this game.

10/16/11

NCAA By The Numbers: Week 7


1:  Completed passes by Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller in the Buckeyes' 17-7 upset of the Fighting Illini in Champaign, Illinois.  Luke Fickell seems to have found the way to win.  Prevent turnovers by keeping the ball far, far away from the horrible quarterbacks on his team.  The Buckeyes ran the ball

2:  Consecutive kick return TDs scored by Oklahoma State and Texas to begin the second half.  Oklahoma State took the opening kickoff of the second half and CB Josh Gilbert returned it 94 yards for a TD.  In response, Texas RB Fozzy Whittaker took the ensuing kickoff 105 yards for a score in return.  The last time two consecutive kickoffs were returned for TDs in a game was back in 2005 between Ohio and Ball State.

3: Undefeated teams that were upset on Saturday, leaving ten in Division-I.  Michigan lost their early game in East Lansing, Illinois lost at home to a team that has yet to discover the forward pass, and Georgia Tech lost to Virginia somehow.


9: Total first downs for Ole Miss in their entire game against Alabama.  Ole Miss scored on a 5 play, 72 yard drive to open the game and take an early 7-0 lead.  Ole Miss only mustered 69 yards of offense in the remaining 58 minutes and 30 seconds of the game, and surrendered 52 unanswered points to the Crimson Tide.  Houston Nutt's fate is sealed at this point, but performances like this continue to make Ole Miss look worse.  Alabama showed again that you can score on them early, but after about the first or second quarter, they lock down on defense and allow nothing.  Another number: 1.5.  Yards per carry Alabama is allowing this season, which is .6 yards lower than any other FBS team.

11: Number of sacks for the Michigan State defense in their past two games (6 coming in this game) after only managing 5 sacks in their first four games.  While both teams had 18 first downs, the Spartans were the only passable offense in this game.  Michigan quarterbacks combined to go 12/31 for only 168 yards in East Lansing, where winds were swirling at up to 40 miles per hour.  More odd was the Michigan Wolverines playcalling, which went completely away from the offense that got them to 6-0.  Michigan drove down on the first drive, and completely went away from their offense.  Denard had very few designed QB runs compared to the last few weeks, and only managed 42 yards, as quite a few of his runs were scrambles or sacks.  MSU RB Edwin Baker ran for 169 yards and a touchdown to lead the Spartans to their fourth straight victory over Michigan.  As Mark Dantonio said in a postgame interview: "Times have changed".


39: Points Clemson scored in the second half to overcome a major upset at the hands of Maryland.  Maryland went up 35-17 with 13:41 left in the 3rd quarter, and Clemson outscored Maryland 39-10 from that point on.  RB Andre Ellington rushed 24 times for 214 yards and 2 TDs.  QB Tajh Boyd went 26/38 passing for 269 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT.   Honorable mention goes to Maryland's do-it-all QB C.J. Brown who accounted for 341 of Maryland's 466 total yards, with 176 passing yards and 23 rushes for 165 rushing yards.  Maryland scored 45 points and lost, they can't have expected that.

241: Difference in yardage gained between Texas Tech and Kansas State, and despite Tech's major advantage on offense, Kansas State emerged victorious 41-34.  The Wildcats scored their first two touchdowns on an interception return for a TD and a kickoff return for a TD.  Seth Doege threw his typical 60+ passes, but in an atypical performance, he threw 3 interceptions along with his 68.3% completions and 461 yards.  Tech couldn't run the ball, as they had 33 rushes for a mere 119 yards.  This could be due in part to the loss of RB Eric Stephens this week to a season-ending injury.  On the other side, QB Collin Klein has carried the ball 19 times in every game thus far, and nothing changed on Saturday, as he toted the rock 23 times for 110 yards.  He also went 12/18 for 146 yards throwing the ball.  Kansas State's zone read offense did just enough to win, and in this game, that meant not turning the ball over, while the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers of their own.

326: Career receptions for Oklahoma WR Ryan Broyles, making him the NCAA all-time leader in receptions, overtaking Purdue WR Taylor Stubblefield's previous record of 316.  Broyles notched 13 receptions for 217 yards and 2 TDs in the Sooners' 47-17 win over Kansas.  

412: Combined yards in the Kent State 9-3 victory over Miami (OH).  Kent State had 244 yards, while Miami (OH) had 168, and the teams combined for a mere 7 conversions on 31 total third downs.  On 70 total rushes, both teams combined for less than 2 yards per carry (70 carries for 128 yards).  Another number: 20.  That's the number of total punts in what looked more like a soccer game than football.  MAC football, feel the mediocrity overtake you.

494: Rushing yards for Northern Illinois in their 51-22 rout of MAC foe Western Michigan.  Northern Illinois was down 15-7 after an Alex Carder TD pass with 8:20 left in the 2nd quarter.  Then in the next 28 minutes of game play, Northern Illinois scored 44 unanswered points, and led 51-15 with 10:34 left in the game.  QB Chandler Harnish accounted for 432 yards, 229 of which came on his 14 carries on the ground. Harnish is second only to Denard Robinson in rushing yards for quarterbacks, with 610 yards in the young season and a 7.4 yards per carry average.  The Huskies travel to Toledo on November 1st, for what will likely decide who represents the MAC West division in the MAC Championship game.

742: Total yards of offense that Boise State totaled on Saturday against Colorado State.  Heisman candidate Kellen Moore was flawless, going 26/30 for 338 yards and 4 TDs.  His main target was WR Tyler Shoemaker who caught 9 passes for 180 yards and 2 TDs.  RB Doug Martin rushed 20 times for 200 yards and 3 TDs in the 63-13 rout, in which Boise scored all 9 of their touchdowns in the first 40:14 of game time.

10/15/11

Scouting Notebook: #1 LSU @ Tennessee


During games periodically, I'll write down thoughts about games as they take place, and share them with you, the readers, to help break down major plays in the games, as well as familiarize you with the players you'll see all season and potentially on Sundays in the NFL.  All the thoughts are in chronological order.


LSU @ Tennessee:

-          LSU CB Tyrann Mathieu is one of the most explosive players in the country.  Every time he gets his hands on the ball, you think it’s going for a touchdown.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a few touches on offense as the year goes on.  He’s impressive defensively too, he hits extremely hard for a 5’9”, 175 lb. corner, and leads LSU in tackles.
-          LSU’s getting dominated on the interior of their line, they’re really missing their starting center, who’s out for the game today.  And Tennessee blocks a field goal!  Until the field goal block is called off due to a delay of game penalty that should have blown the play dead.  Unfortunate for Tennessee, but LSU was clearly about five seconds late on the snap.
-          Tyrann Mathieu got burned, made up for it by jumping out of the building to tip the ball, and Tennessee’s RB Raijon Neal still made a tremendous catch.  The very next play Tennessee tests Morris Claiborne, the other star LSU cornerback deep, and he picks it off, returning it about 90 yards the other way down to the 5.  Wonder if QB Matt Simms and Tennessee learned their lesson yet.
-          LSU calls a HB screen at the perfect time, Spencer Ware runs in basically untouched for a TD.  14-0, and LSU looks like they’ve found their offensive groove.  Time for them to start pulling away.
-          Well, there’s the answer to if Matt Simms learned his lesson yet.  On a solid playaction fake, Matt Simms stares down the outside receiver and forces it into double coverage on a deep post, where safety Eric Reed picks it off for LSU.  Simms had a wide open receiver about 15 yards down the middle of the field.
-          Da’Rick Rogers with a 44 yard reception, one of the first big plays Tennessee has had today.
-          Tennessee’s interior offensive line is dominating the tackles of LSU, Tennessee’s putting together a solid drive. 
-          Great seal block by Tennessee’s right tackle and a solid block by the fullback help Tauren Poole punch it into the endzone.  14-7 LSU, do we have a game now?  I still think not, but Tennessee looks better than expected so far.
-          Freshman WR Odell Beckham Jr. may be every bit as fast as Tyrann Mathieu, Beckham Jr. hits his second gear very quickly.  WRs Odell Beckham, Reuben Randle, Russell Shepard and TE Deangelo Peterson quietly form a very formidable receiving corps.
-          Jordan Jefferson is in now, and is gashing Tennessee on the ground.  He runs a QB power for 10 yards and a first down, then a 6 yard QB power on the next play.
-          Jordan Jefferson has 12 carries for 73 yards, and Spencer Ware 15 carries for 60 yards.  Jefferson runs an option into the end zone to cap a 99-yard TD drive.  This seems like the group of QBs that Les Miles can manage to a national title, just like he did with Matt Flynn and Ryan Perriloux 4 years ago.
-          Great return by Tennessee’s  freshman RB Devrin Young.  That is, until Russell Shepard comes from nowhere and catches him.  Shepard, Beckham, Mathieu, and Claiborne are unreal athletes.  It’s amazing how many great athletes they have. 
-          Spencer Ware is insanely physical.  He seeks out contact, and delivers blows more often than he receives them, that’s how he holds up under the load of carries that LSU gives him and looks unfazed in the fourth quarter. 
-          LSU’s offensive sets aren’t flashy by any means, but they constantly sustain long drives and eat up the clock, which is exactly what they’re gunning for.  LSU wants no part of an offensive shootout where QBs Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson are put in more difficult situations.
-          Great play call by LSU on a WR screen to Russell Shepard.  I predicted 38-7 would be the final score, and what do you know?  It looks like 38-7 will in fact be the final.  LSU’s defense gave up a couple big plays, but nothing all that consequential, and the offense was consistent, scoring on six possessions.  An overall dominant showing by LSU tonight, and just cements the fact that Alabama-LSU will be the de facto national championship game.

Scouting Notebook: Ohio State @ #16 Illinois


During games periodically, I'll write down thoughts about games as they take place, and share them with you, the readers, to help break down major plays in the games, as well as familiarize you with the players you'll see all season and potentially on Sundays in the NFL.  All the thoughts are in chronological order.


Ohio State vs. Illinois:



-          Ohio State QB Braxton Miller runs into RB Dan “Boom” Herron on a running play; he’s still getting the kinks out clearly, being a freshman.  Even as a Wolverines fan, I look forward to seeing how big of a jump forward he takes next year.
-          4 passes were thrown in the first quarter, all by Illinois.  OSU ran the ball 15 times and scored 3 points while keeping the Illini off the scoreboard.  Ideally, they want Miller’s pass attempts under 20 each game at this point.
-          What a tremendous sideline catch on a deep ball by A.J. Jenkins.   Every team knows the pass game is running through him, but no one can stop him.
-          Dan Herron has really added a little bit extra to this offense.  He’s quite obviously their best offensive skill player at this point.
-          Miller’s arm is inspiring absolutely no confidence in the passing game.  His passes are wobbly and he’s not comfortable in the pocket.
-          Ron Zook blows game management 101 again, he had the chance to get the ball back without 40 seconds left in the half and at least attempt to get a field goal, but opts to save his three timeouts.  Someone should tell him timeouts don’t rollover after halftime.
-          Nathan Scheelhaase completely misses a curl route to A.J. Jenkins, picked off by Ohio State.  Dan Herron punches it in and puts Ohio State up 10-0.  Great bounce-out by Herron.  Looks like it’s windy in Champaign, Illinois, as Scheelhaase’s throw floated farther than he anticipated.
-          By the numbers: OSU has run 33 plays. 30 rushes, 3 passes. 
-          A.J. Jenkins is a polished route runner and great pass-catcher.  He snatches everything that comes his way.  He didn’t get much national pub last year as he only had 746 yards, but he had already eclipsed that figure before today’s game on a mere 46 catches thanks to the development of Nathan Scheelhaase.  He’ll be playing on Sundays, and probably for a while.  He doesn’t come across as a #1 receiver, but could definitely profile as a solid #2 receiver down the road.
-          Braxton Miller has dropped back 7 times.  4 times he was sacked, and the other 3 times he threw incompletions.  How does the Illini defense allow him to run for 35 yards on a QB Draw?  Illinois’ players need to know the situation; Ohio State has no passing game whatsoever. 
-          Scheelhaase bobbles a shotgun snap and is tackled at his own 4, because he was looking to his receivers before he even caught the snap.  That should be the end of the Illini’s possession.
o   Except for the fact that they have A.J. Jenkins.  Scheelhaase steps up in the pocket and throws a dart to A.J. Jenkins right at the marker on the sideline, first down Illini.  Big throw by Scheelhaase.
-          A.J. Jenkins with a solid catch, and loses the ball.  OSU recovers the fumble.  Illinois is shooting themselves in the foot right now, with two turnovers in the second half. 
-          By the Numbers: Ohio State has run 42 plays. 39 rushes, 3 passes.
-          Braxton throws a pass, and it’s the first completion of the day, a touchdown to TE Jake Stoneburner.  17-0 Ohio State; that should be it for Illinois’ chances of winning.
-          Illinois finally gets into the endzone.  3 yard pass, 17-7. 
-          Illinois forces a punt and has the ball back near the 50 with about 4 minutes left.  This game isn’t quite over yet as Illinois also has all three of their timeouts.
o   Just as I type that, on the first Illini play, Scheelhaase forces the ball downfield and throws it short of his receiver.  Ohio State CB Travis Howard picks it off, and that may be it for Illinois’ hopes of winning.  OSU forced 3 turnovers in the 2nd half, which ended up being the key to this game.

Scouting Notebook: #6 Oklahoma State @ #22 Texas

During games periodically, I'll write down thoughts about games as they take place, and share them with you, the readers, to help break down major plays in the games, as well as familiarize you with the players you'll see all season and potentially on Sundays in the NFL.  All the thoughts are in chronological order.

Oklahoma State – Texas:
-          A huge run up the middle by Texas RB Malcolm Brown followed by a 20 yard run and catch off a quick curl in the middle of the field on Texas’ 2nd drive.  Oklahoma State’s linebackers are nowhere to be found right now.
-          Oh hey, there they are.  Poor read by Texas QB David Ash who throws it right to a linebacker in what’s clearly a Cover 2 defense for his first interception.  Great ball skills by OSU LB Caleb Lavey.
-          Beautiful throw over the top of double coverage by Brandon Weeden to Josh Cooper.  After two runs, the Texas defense was sucked up close to the line of scrimmage.  The Cowboys’ up-tempo offense really forces defenses to cheat a lot or play vanilla coverages; there’s no time to keep switching personnel.
-          David Ash hits Mike Davis on another short curl route and throws to him again on a comeback route on the next play.  It’s clear Mike Davis is Ash’s go-to receiver.  Oklahoma State should really be double covering him at this point.
-          Oklahoma State’s defensive line is getting great push so far, Ash hasn’t looked all that comfortable in the early going here.
-          Malcolm Brown is a load to bring down, he runs upright, but still breaks a lot of arm tackles.  He brings back memories of Cedric Benson, as he doesn’t have breakaway speed but runs through quite a bit of contact.
-          Brandon Weeden forced a deep ball to Justin Blackmon, silly decision.  Texas’ DB Carrington Byndom catches it and barely lands out of bounds, so Oklahoma State gets a lucky break.  Weeden makes the same decision the next play, and Byndom almost picks it off again.  Texas looks comfortable putting Byndom 1-on-1 against Justin Blackmon.  No matter how good a receiver is, you can’t force it to him this badly.  I understand what they’re doing though.  Texas will eventually pay for leaving Blackmon single-covered.
-          AGAIN, Texas WR Mike Davis runs a comeback/curl route and gets a first down.  It doesn’t seem that complicated to anticipate, but Oklahoma State can’t seem to stop it.
-          Blackmon gets the ball on an end around and takes it for 23 yards, Oklahoma State will get the ball in Blackmon’s hands, however they can.
o   Including a 4th and 9 conversion later on the drive on a 17-yard pass.  He’s already got 5 receptions with about 40 minutes left in the game.
o   Three straight throws to Justin Blackmon, and I think the single coverage on him is about to end. 
-          Mike Davis has 6 of Texas’ 7 receptions thus far, this is getting a bit ridiculous.  He’s open 8-10 yards downfield constantly.  Texas may be trying to set up a deep ball to Davis. 
o   Davis catches a screen.  Make it 7 catches. 
-          David Ash looks like he runs a legit 4.5 40, he’s got serious speed for a QB, and he’s been quite accurate on his short throws actually.  That 23 yard scramble was big to keeping their drive going.
-          Weeden has a gun for an arm, and is really a pro at running this spread attack.  He goes through his progression so quickly, and has so many reliable options.  Justin Blackmon, Tracy Moore, Josh Cooper, and Hubert Anyiam are all reliable receivers.  Outside of LSU, I don’t know that any defense can stop this group of playmakers and Weeden for four quarters.
-          4th and inches from the Texas 30, and Oklahoma State loads up a Heavy Pistol formation to go for it.  Somehow, Texas’ defense wasn’t ready as they had less players in the box than Texas in the box than Oklahoma State.  Oklahoma State very rarely runs from any formation other than the Pistol, so why the Longhorns were so baffled beats me.  One linebacker that was at the line botched his assignment and Jeremy Smith took the ball 30 yards for a TD.
-          Oklahoma State CB Justin Gilbert returns the 2nd half’s opening kickoff for a touchdown, his second kick return TD of the year.  Yet another playmaker on this team.  He already has 4 kickoff TD returns in his career, and he’s only a sophomore.
-          Are you kidding?  Fozzy Whittaker returns Oklahoma State’s kickoff for a TD!  What an answer to the Cowboys’ big special teams play!  Also shows a lack of discipline on both special teams units.  3 Oklahoma State players took bad angles on Whittaker and converged 5 yards behind him as he raced to paydirt.  This is Whittaker’s second consecutive game with a kick return TD.  What a fun start to the second half.
-          Oklahoma State starts the half with two 3-and-outs on offense.  Texas has been able to get pressure to Weeden recently. 
-          Malcolm Brown shows exceptional balance on the sideline to stay in bounds for the long rushing touchdown.  This is his best game of his collegiate career thus far with over 100 yards and 2 rushing TDs.  David Ash carries out a great playfake as well on the Statue of Liberty play.  Texas offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin got Boise State on the national scene with the same play against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl a few years back.
-          Weeden stares down WR Hubert Anyiam on a crossing route in double coverage, and fires an absolutely perfect pass to get the first down conversion.  Can’t emphasize this enough, he’s really got a strong arm.  
-          Josh Cooper makes a phenomenal catch on a ball thrown behind him by Weeden.  Josh Cooper, Hubert Anyiam and Justin Blackmon may all get drafted in 2012, it’ll be interesting to watch.
-          Texas is getting far more pressure on Brandon Weeden here in the second half. They make a big goal line stand and hold Oklahoma State to a field goal, 31-24.
-          To continue on Malcolm Brown, he’s not hesitant whatsoever today. He’s hitting the right hole every time he gets the ball.  Decisiveness is often a problem with freshmen, so that’s good news for Texas.
-          Jeremy Smith inserts himself into the runningback conversation, helping Oklahoma State score on two straight carries, the second of which was a 74 yard TD run.  Texas’ defense was really spread out, no one had a chance to catch him.  Smith and Randle have done an admirable job of replacing RB Kendall Hunter, who’s now in the NFL with the 49ers.
-          Texas goes for it on 4th and goal, and David Ash underthrows Fozzy Whittaker on a flat route, who fell inches short of the goal line.  Oklahoma State runs the ball and barely gets out of the endzone, then Brandon Weeden takes a shotgun snap 7 yards deep in the endzone, and in his drop back, he steps out of the endzone.  38-26 Oklahoma State, so Texas gets some points out of their drive, and will get the ball back.  Texas really needs to get a TD here to make it a one possession game.
-          Texas’ CB Quandre Diggs makes a fantastic play on a Weeden pass on 3rd down, and nearly picked it off, but didn’t.  Texas needs to finish these types of plays if they want to win big games like this one.  They’ve got an outside shot at taking down Oklahoma State, which would be the fourth upset of an undefeated team today.
-          David Ash is making a living on these short routes, and is averaging under 3.3 yards per attempt, which is pretty pitiful, but understandable in his first start.  He’s really settling in though as Oklahoma State is playing prevent defense.  They look far too comfortable giving Texas short completions, as Texas is moving the ball pretty efficiently.  Oklahoma State has only scored 10 points on offense in the second half, so it’s not crazy to think Texas can get the ball back. 
-          Ash is 7/8 for 48 yards on this drive, he’s looked far more comfortable, as the Longhorns are getting the ball out of his hands quickly.  ESPN just showed his passing chart, which showed that Ash is 23/32 on passes under 15 yards, but 0/5 on any pass longer than 15 yards.  Right on cue, he throws a deep seam route to a spot on the field where no one is. 
-          Ash fumbles, and the game may be over.  A nickelback blitz on Ash’s backside got to him, and had he seen the blitz, the backside slot WR was wide open streaking down the field on a seam route.  Texas’ hopes of winning are dashed now, but they still can hang their hat on staying close with Oklahoma State all game. 
-          Oklahoma State will take some worries away from this game, as their offense was completely stagnant in the second half other than Jeremy Smith’s two carry TD drive.  Texas got far more pressure on Weeden in the second half and forced errant throws.  On the defensive side, they let the Longhorns run all over them on the ground, and David Ash actually looked fairly efficient towards the end of the game, although that was probably more by Oklahoma State’s design.  They were playing a mild prevent defense, giving up the short 5-6 yard routes to Texas in exchange for time burning off the clock.  Overall, the pass defense was solid against the freshman Ash, but the run defense which surrendered 217 rushing yards is a major problem.
Copyright © Closer By Committee - Blogger Theme by BloggerThemes & newwpthemes - Sponsored by Internet Entrepreneur