Heisman High Men: Week 6

Heisman High Men is a weekly feature that forecasts who would win the Heisman were it picked that week.  As we all know, the main criteria of winning the Heisman are some or all of the following: 

1.) Being the most outstanding player on an elite-level team (read: BCS game potential) 

2.) Compiling insane statistics that are impossible to ignore (i.e. Denard Robinson getting votes in 2010)

3.) Playing in primetime games and having signature "Heisman moments" (example: Cam Newton's run against LSU.)

I'll try to take all three into account the best that I can and come up with a solid projection of the current order of Heisman contenders, as well as projecting how each respective player should perform in their next game. 

Falling: 

RB, Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina: 124 rushes, 663 yards, 9 TDs; 12 receptions, 139 yards, 1 TD

Lattimore was kept pretty quiet by what's a very poor Auburn defense this past weekend, rushing for a mere 66 yards on 17 carries, and he looked mortal.  South Carolina was upset by Auburn, and this probably affected his Heisman contention more than his statistical performance, as his numbers still rival the best RBs in the country.  I fully expected Lattimore to rush for 200 yards as I wrote in my Week 5 preview post, so this is exceptionally disappointing to me.  If South Carolina can manage to win their division in the SEC, Lattimore has a shot at the Heisman.  If not, Trent Richardson will be too much to surmount.  

QB, Andrew Luck, Stanford: 80/112 (71.4%), 1,013 yards, 11 TD, 1 INT; 11 rushes, 53 yards, 1 TD

Andrew Luck is his typical self, dominating nearly every game, and Stanford is squarely in the national titel conversation.  He's still on ballots now, but most of that is based off his performance last year and the fact that he's the #1 pick in next year's NFL Draft.  Luck's performance hasn't yet been transcendent, and his "Heisman moment" is a reception against UCLA.  There are numerous QBs who have outperformed him this year, including Russell Wilson, Kellen Moore, Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin III, and two of them have signature wins in primetime games.  If Luck dominates against Oregon and leads Stanford to victory, we may as well wrap the Heisman up for him, but until then, he's not a true contender in my mind.

Heisman Ballot

1. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: 96 rushes, 622 yards, 10 TDs; 11 receptions, 148 yards, 1 TD

Like I said last week, the Heisman race early in the season is a volatile one, with players dropping in and out based on singular performances.  Since we only have 4-6 games to judge players on, it's a lot harder to evaluate whole season performances, and players who start slow can enter the race if they come on strong, as Richardson has.  He started very slow in their first two games, but this tidbit from ESPN explains why Richardson is coming on so strong: 

But on the biggest of stages, Richardson has been his best, accounting for 549 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against Penn State, Arkansas and Florida. 

 With a first-year QB that's being severely limited in the passing game, Richardson is the backbone of the offense on a top 3 team, and that's why he'll be a contender the rest of the year if he keeps putting up 100+ yard games.

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin: 83/111 (74.8%), 1,391 yards, 13 TD, 1 INT; 22 rushes, 108 yards, 2 TD

Wilson's candidacy is a reality now after the Badgers pummeled Nebraska on national TV in primetime behind Russell Wilson's brilliant play.  He's the second rated passer in the country (behind Robert Griffin III), and easily leads the nation in yards per attempt (12.5 YPA).  Again, on only 20 passes per game, Wilson is putting up fantastic, efficient stats, and leading his team to national title contention.  Luck's putting up the same stats with almost ten more attempts per game, and against weaker opposition than Nebraska in comparison.  Wilson should put up phenomenal stats yet again this week, as the Badgers face the lowly Indiana Hoosiers.

3. Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State: 142/191 (74.3%), 1,592 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT

Weeden's put up more yards than any other Heisman contender this season, and has done it in only 4 games.  Weeden's video game numbers in conjunction with Oklahoma State's national title contention are sure to keep him in the Heisman picture.  Additionally, WR Justin Blackmon draws a ton of national attention, which helps get Weeden more national showcase opportunities, such as OSU's come-from-behind win against Texas A&M two weeks ago.  Oklahoma State plays Kansas this week, so expect another near 400 yard day and a few TD passes.  Weeden's candidacy will be challenged again next week against Texas.  

4. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: 92/112 (82.1%), 1,308 yards, 18 TD, 1 INT; 36 rushes, 132 yards, 1 TD

The nation's leader in pass efficiency suffered a major blow to his Heisman candidacy as his Baylor Bears lost to the Kansas State Wildcats in a thrilling 36-35 game.  Griffin was far from the reason for the loss, as he went 23/31 with 346 yards and 5 TDs.  What many people may remember unfortunately was Griffin's costly interception to essentially end the game, but keep in mind, Baylor led almost the whole game and wouldn't have had a chance without Griffin's brilliant play.  Griffin's stats through four games are ridiculous, and he only has two more incompletions than touchdown passes this year.  This week he can rehabilitate his image a bit as the Bears face Iowa State at 7:00 PM on Saturday.  He'll keep the stats coming, but can Baylor at least be a decent enough team to keep him in contention?  We'll see by the end of October.  

5.  Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU: 35 tackles (4.5 Tackles For Loss), 1.5 sacks; 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries for 20 yards and 2 TDs; 4 passes broken up, 1 INT

That statline is a mouthful, as it usually is for defenders, but let me summarize it.  Mathieu leads the Tigers in tackles this year, has accounted for 4 turnovers, and caused more fumbles himself, and also has been a presence behind the offensive line of scrimmage with the 4.5 TFL and 1.5 sacks.  Mathieu has been thoroughly impressive and seems to come up with a signature play every week.  He's likely not long for this list, but what he's done to this point is thoroughly impressive.  LSU vs Florida will be on primetime this week, and if Mathieu causes a turnover or takes a punt return to the house, he may even move up my list.