Week 3 NCAA Football Preview and Poll

Week 2 brought us a lot of exciting games, namely the Michigan-Notre Dame thriller, South Carolina and Georgia, Auburn stuffing Mississippi State at the goal line as time expired, and Arizona State topping Missouri in overtime.  The games that were expected to be exciting, largely were.  This week has the same feel as Week 2; there are a couple marquee matchups, but besides them, it may take some channel scanning to determine which games are going to be interesting.

Luckily for you, I'm here to help you out with what I think are the most exciting games of the week, as well as predictions about the games.  First, I'll put up my initial Top 25 Poll of the year:




1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Boise State
4. Alabama
5. Wisconsin
6. Stanford
7. Florida State
8. Texas A&M
9. Oklahoma State
10. Oregon
11. South Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Arkansas
14. West Virginia
15. Florida
16. Virginia Tech
17. Michigan State
18. Arizona State
19. Auburn
20. Mississippi State
21. Ohio State
22. South Florida
23. Baylor
24. Tennessee
25. UCF

Just missed the cut (in order): Illinois, USC, Maryland, Michigan, Texas

Notes: 
- Oklahoma faces a big test this week against Florida State.  With a win, it's highly unlikely they're even challenged again until November 5th against Texas A&M.
- The Big 12 is very top-heavy this year, 3 top 10 teams, and then Baylor will remain in the polls until mid-October when they face Texas A&M and Oklahoma State on the road in consecutive games.
- I'm not a big fan of Virginia Tech after they managed only 17 points against what's always a poor ECU defense.  Their defense and RB David Wilson are great, but QB Logan Thomas is a work in progress.
- I am a big fan of West Virginia.  Dana Holgorsen's offense has already been installed, and Geno Smith is lighting up the scoreboard at the helms of what will likely be a top-10 offense this year.
- Arizona State gets a big bump for the win over Missouri.  QB Brock Osweiler was insanely impressive and looks to have all the makings of a future first-round NFL draft pick.
- Mississippi State may have lost to Auburn, but it sure wasn't by much.  MSU is still a very good team, and should still reach 8 to 9 wins as I expected.
- UCF gets the nod for dominating an ACC team (even if it was Boston College), and because they finished last year ranked as well.

Game Previews (rankings according to AP poll):


#3 LSU vs #25 Mississippi State (Thursday, 8:00 PM, ESPN):

LSU  and MSU face off in what's highly bandied about as an upset.  I see things a bit differently after MSU's defense was destroyed by Auburn's running game and young QB Barrett Trotter.  LSU will run at will against Mississippi State's depleted front 7 (2 starting linebackers, and star DE Pernell McPhee are now in the NFL), and dominate the game.

The Pick:  LSU 31-14

#1 Oklahoma vs #5 Florida State (Saturday, 8:00 PM, ABC):


This is the marquee game of the weekend, and features two Heisman contenders in QBs Landry Jones of Oklahoma and E.J. Manuel of FSU.  Florida State may just have the best secondary in the country, while Oklahoma has one of the best offenses in the country, and that's the matchup to watch here.  Florida State got absolutely torched when they traveled to Norman, Oklahoma last year for the first part of this home-and-home series, and while I think this year's matchup will be far closer, Oklahoma will still prevail, as they're the better offense and have a good enough defense to get by.


The Pick:  Oklahoma 37-31

#21 Auburn vs Clemson (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ABC):


Auburn just keeps finding a way to win somehow, but will Clemson be the one to stop them?  Doubtful.  Clemson's offense will do damage to Auburn's extremely vulnerable defense, but the Clemson Tigers won't be able to stop the running game that features option elements, which gave them so much trouble against Wofford last week.  Auburn continues their winning ways with an impressive win in another tight game.


The Pick:  Auburn 31-28

#18 West Virginia vs Maryland (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPNU):


This is a matchup not getting much national coverage, but it features two of the top under-the-radar QBs in the country in Geno Smith (WVU) and Danny O'Brien (Maryland).  Maryland opened the year with a big win over Miami (FL) and WVU is off to a hot start on offense, scoring 44.5 points per game thus far.  This should be a shootout, as neither defense is remarkable, but Maryland's is probably better.  I'm going to roll with West Virginia's offense run by Dana Holgorsen in what should be one of the better matchups this weekend.

The Pick:  West Virginia 41-35

Tennessee vs  #16 Florida (Saturday, 3:30 PM, CBS):


Florida and Tennessee both open their SEC schedules with their rivalry game, and this year's matchup looks to be hotly contested.  In my upset special of the week, I'm picking Tennessee, led by QB Tyler Bray, RB Tyrone Poole, and WRs Darick Rogers and Justin Hunter to take down the Gators, IN Gainesville.  This will be Florida's first real test, and I'm not a believer in the Gators this year, yet.  They win this game, they make a believer out of me.

The Pick: Tennessee 27-24

#22 Arizona State vs Illinois (Saturday, 7:00 PM, Big Ten Network):


Brock Osweiler leads the Sun Devils into Champaign to face the Fighting Illini in a very underrated matchup.  This could be a fun game, with Arizona State running more of a pro-style offense, while Illinois runs a very similar offense to Mississippi State, a run-heavy spread offense that incorporates options and triple options quite often.  Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase came into his own the second half of last year and is playing well once again this year.  The matchup to watch here is All-American LB Vontaze Burfict of Arizona State against the Illini running game.  If Burfict can wreak havoc the way he did against Missouri and Northern Arizona, the Illini are in deep trouble.  I'm going to take Arizona State here in what should be a close, fun game.

The Pick:  Arizona State 34-31