9/8/11

Debris Caution: Wonderful Pistachios 400

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


NASCAR heads to Richmond this week for what will be the final race before the Chase. Richmond's races have traditionally been under the lights and with such high stakes involved it leads to some great racing. Unfortunately the field for The Chase is all but set, I mean look at the clinch scenarios for the final two top-10 spots:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Finish 20th or better, 21st or better and lead one lap, 22nd or better and lead most laps

Tony Stewart: Finish 18th or better, 19th or better and lead one lap, 20th or better and lead the most laps

And that is without any help. Denny Hamlin is also pretty secure but if Paul Menard wins or Marcos Ambrose wins makes it into 20th and wins (he currently is 21st, seven points behind Menard and ten behind Mark Martin). David Ragan could also throw a wrench into things, he sits 23rd in points, twenty behind Menard, but if he were to win Saturday he would rapidly close the gap. There is a cluster of winless drivers that are mathematically in it, which include: A.J. Allmendinger, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, Joey Logano, Mark Martin, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Out of that group your best bets to make some noise are Allmendinger and Bowyer.

So who are the best bets to finish the "regular season" strong? Well, if it's Richmond, that's Kyle Busch territory. No one is even close to Busch and you know that he wouldn't mind adding another win to his Cup leading total of four. In 13 career starts Busch has 11 top-5s (which account for all of his top-10s), zero DNFs, and three wins (Jimmie Johnson has also won three times, but his average finish is 11.2 and that's without a single DNF). His average finish of 4.9 is heads and shoulders above everyone else and he's my pick to win this weekend. I know, shocker, but I fully expect Busch to be at his best on Saturday night and it doesn't hurt that he won the Richmond race earlier this year.

If it's not Busch, then it may very well be his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin. Hamlin won this event last year and he is only one of three drivers with an average career finish under 10 (7.5). In eleven starts he has seven top-10s, six of which have gone for top-5s, and two wins. Hamlin needs this race a lot worse than his teammate, but as long as one of them wins it should cinch up Hamlin's spot in the Chase. Don't count out their teammate, Joey Logano, either: he only has five starts but one top-5 and and an average finish of 12.8. If nothing else he should be right on the cusp of a top-10 finish. Because of JGR's dominance at this track, Joey is also my dark horse pick to make some noise on Saturday.

If there are two drivers that need this race more than Hamlin, it would have to be Clint Bowyer and Paul Menard. Bowyer is the third member of the prestigious "single-digit average career finish" club at 9.5. He has 11 career starts and six of those have gone for top-10s and one of those was a win. Bowyer would need to win this weekend and it's going to be a tall task, but he should be near the front and that means there could be some chippy racing near the front. Just don't let Bowyer near Juan Pablo Montoya and he should be fine. Menard, on the other hand, hasn't enjoyed any success at Richmond. Menard has nine career starts and none of those ended in top-10s and his average finish is 28.3. To say that his chances are slim would be an understatement, but then again, who would of picked Menard to win the Brickyard 400 (I did have him on my fantasy team, though!).

A.J. Allmendinger finished seventh in the spring race and has another top-10 in nine career starts. Allmendinger only has a career finish of 23.7, but this has been the year of the first time winner. His teammate, Marcos Ambrose, can attest to that. Ambrose has an outside shot at the Chase if he can pull off an upset victory, but he may actually have a better chance than his teammate despite the fact that he's eight spots behind him in points. Ambrose has two top-10s in five career starts and one of those was a top-5. His career finish of 14.0 puts him in ninth place among active drivers, though his average start of 21.0 is the second lowest of top-20 average finishers (Matt Kenseth is the only driver that is worse at qualifying for Richmond: 21.5). If nothing else, it has been a fantastic rebound for Richard Petty Motorsports and the future is bright for a group that almost had to close shop a year ago.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Copyright © Closer By Committee - Blogger Theme by BloggerThemes & newwpthemes - Sponsored by Internet Entrepreneur