Debris Caution: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen

Debris Caution is a regular feature that puts you in the driver's seat for upcoming NASCAR events. It previews upcoming races and looks in depth at everything from point battles to the offseason.


This week, the NASCAR schedule takes us to the land of turning right at Watkins Glen International. Road course racing has always been my favorite part of the NASCAR schedule and The Glen has provided some fantastic races over the year. Plus, it gives us a chance to see Boris Said's magnificent afro, and really, that's what NASCAR is all about.

Last week, Brad Keselowski held on for one of the most improbable victories I think anyone has ever seen. Just a few days after breaking his ankle and having it swell to the size of a grapefruit, then sitting through nearly two hours of rain, and then having to hold off Kyle Busch of all people, Kes managed to win his second race of the year and all but wrap up a spot in The Chase. So what can we expect as an encore from the Blue Deuce? Well, if the stats are to be believed, not much. Kes just has three races in the Sprint Cup series on road courses and his average finish is 21.7 (only one of those was at Watkins Glen, where he finished 20th). For what it's worth, he was great in the Nationwide Series (three races, three top 10s, a top 5, and an average finish of 6.3) at The Glen. I spoke about momentum being a funny thing back when I started this feature, and I think you can expect Kes to continue improving and find some success this week. Even with one bad ankle I still think he'll score his first top-10 on a road course in the Sprint Cup this Sunday.

Whenever the Sprint Cup goes to a road course you can expect to see plenty of Juan Pablo Montoya and Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose has never won a Sprint Cup race but he is one of the very best at Watkins Glen: seven races, six top-10s, five top-5s, and an average finish of 9.1 (even with the only other race being a DNF). He is the second highest in average finish (behind Tony Stewart) and generally gives himself excellent starting position (11.7). Ambrose is far too good to be winless at these road courses, and if he is going to break through it will be this weekend at The Glen. This year has been kind to first time winners (Trevor Bayne, David Ragan, Paul Menard, and Regan Smith) and I think Ambrose will join that list this weekend. Look for him to get his first week on Sunday.

Even though Montoya is far more volatile, he has been even more successful than Ambrose. In nine total races he has an average finish of 10.6, seven top-10s, and two wins. If you watch Montoya on these road courses you'll know the reason I said he is volatile, and for the uninitiated, let's just say he doesn't mind getting his bumper dirty. Montoya seems to piss off someone new every time NASCAR invades a road course and it seems oddly appropriate that he has a target on his hood. If Montoya doesn't use his car up on his bull-rushing charges to the front (which happen quite often since his pit crew doesn't do him many favors) he'll finish in the top five and challenge for the win. He'll also probably run through someone along the way.

I briefly mentioned Tony Stewart earlier, but no one has been quite as successful at WGI as Smoke. He has the highest average finish (8.6), seven wins (only two behind active leader Jeff Gordon, who has also ran 12 more races), eleven top-5s, 18 top-10s, and only a single DNF. When the NASCAR schedule mandates to turn right few, if any, are better than Stewart. Like Montoya, however, he has a tendency to get in trouble with other drivers. If not for Brian Vickers' torpedoing technique we very likely could have seen Smoke battling Kurt Busch to the end and perhaps even winning. Tony hasn't won this year and is clinging to a one point lead over Dale Earnhardt Jr. for ninth place. He needs a strong finish, or ideally a win, to lock up a slot in The Chase and he's very capable of winning this week.

I refuse to take the easy route on dark horses (sorry, Boris Said and Robby Gordon). I'm also not going to go with a guy like Kyle Busch (five top-10s in six starts), but someone more unexpected: AJ Allmendinger. Ambrose's teammate doesn't have quite as much glamour as his teammate (three starts, one top-5, one top-10, and an average finish of 9.3) but is strong on road courses (fifth highest average finish in the last 10 years). It can't be understated how vital it is to have a strong teammate who knows the ins and outs of these tracks and he works with one of the best in the business. I don't expect 'Dinger to challenge for the win unless it gets down to a fuel mileage race, but I do expect a strong showing in the top-10. Having both of the Richard Petty Motorsports cars finish near the front would be a huge boost for a team that is only going to continue getting better.